Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

DOGE wants to control fired NIH employees

What does one do if they possess valuable skills and lose their job? Well, intelligent, ambitious and entrepreneurial Americans market their skills to other employers looking to hire talent. But the NIH Office of Defensive Counterintelligence and Personnel Security thinks the people they fired shouldn’t hire themselves out to the highest bidder in a free […]

Obeying The Rule of Law

“Hundreds Of Law School Deans, Professors, Law Firm Partners, And Former Judges Demand That Government Officials Obey ‘The Rule of Law,’” Above The Law In the face of danger to our democracy, leaders of the bar are stepping up to the plate to ensure its safety. The rule of law is considered the bedrock principle […]

Tariffs and Consumer Prices Insights

Both Joel and New Deal democrat had commentaries on Angry Bear about Real GDP. Economist Claudia Sahm had an evaluation piece on the impact of the Federal Government labor reduction to the economy. No recession according to her analysis and just economic uncertainty. New Deal democrat suggests we should take the Atlanta Fed’s NowCast negative […]

More Slow Growth

Economically weighted ISM indexes for February indicate continued slow growth  – by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is now of much less importance to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, I now use a weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%) as the primary forecasting tool. […]

Trump’s Stock Market’s Bump Appears to be Over

The threats of tariffs and trade wars by Trump appears to have had an impact on the US economy. Moreso than the countries he has been threatening. If they call his bluff, the US population will pay for his malfeasance. Maybe this is what Trump wanted? As reported at Quartz “The stock market’s Trump bump […]

Important changes in trend in the bond and stock markets, and a note on GDP estimates as well

– by New Deal democrat There’s no important economic data today, so this is a good time to write about several important developments in the stock and bond markets. First of all, as many of you may already know, a portion of the US Treasury yield curve, between the 10 year and 3 month Treasuries, re-inverted […]