Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The New Gal Gets Right to the Point (on Social Security)

Angrybear readers have long enjoyed the comments from Elaine Supkis – so by “new gal”, I’m referring to her new blog: The Bush people plug in numbers hoping to fool people. They admit, if you corner them, their formulas will cause real economic pain…for the working class. They won’t admit that this will be a […]

Mankiw on the Baker-DeLong-Krugman Paper

While Brad provided an advanced copy, Dean and Paul presented their paper with Greg Mankiw providing his comments courtesy of Donald Luskin who for some reason thinks Mankiw devastated the paper by Baker-DeLong-Krugman (BDK). Max Sawicky provides another perspective on the Gunfight at the Brookings Corral as does Brad. Greg might have given a citation […]

March Employment Report

Today’s employment report from the BLS was truly disappointing. Most economists had predicted reasonably strong employment growth, of at least 200,000. But it turns out that the US economy only generated half that number of new jobs in March. THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: MARCH 2005 Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 110,000 in March, and the […]

Fiscal Policy: Forty Years of Free Lunches

The Free-Lunch Supply-Side crowd seems to be playing Barbra Streisand’s Memories of late. For example, Greg Kaza traces Federal Reserve articles as far back as 1981 – each noting that incentives matter. Of course, mainstream economists have never doubted this proposition, but we also note that there is something called the law of scarcity, which […]

George Will Supports a National Sales Tax as He Flunks Math

Will’s latest Washington Post oped: He would erase the federal income tax system – personal and corporate income taxes, the regressive payroll tax and self-employment tax, capital gains, gift and estate taxes, the alternative minimum tax, and the earned-income tax credit – and replace all that with a 23 percent national sales tax on personal […]

Soft Landing or Hard: Rip van Winkle Wakes Up

While Brad DeLong provides a nice summary of the debate through yesterday, Kash has been very busy this morning. I shared a question over at David Altig’s blog that simply queries what would Rip van Winkle think if he woke up from a nap that began in 1985. In 1985, the debate centered on the […]

The Savings Rate

The US’s abysmally low personal savings rate has to start rising at some point. There’s no getting around that fact. But we clearly have not yet reached that point. Today’s release of the February personal income and spending data from the BEA shows no inclination for US households to start saving more. Personal income increased […]

A Tale of Two Landings: Part I

The best of times, or the worst of times: what will the US’s eventual current account (CA) adjustment entail? As some of you have perhaps deduced by now, I have bravely staked out a position of indecision about whether I find the hard landing scenario or the soft landing scenario more compelling. As I alluded […]

A Tale of Two Landings: Part II

And now for the other, darker side of my tale: the hard landing for the US’s CA imbalance. I envision the hard landing to be triggered by some sort of shock to the system. One of the problems with the soft landing story is that there are many, many different possible shocks to choose from […]

Social Security: Tanner v. Krugman and Marshall

The Club for Growth’s Soc. Sec. blog had been previewing a debate on March 15 between Michael Tanner and Paul Krugman forgetting to mention that Joshua Marshall was also invited to speak. Via Joshua comes the transcript. Michael Tanner led off trying to claim that the Trust Fund has $12 trillion in debt right now […]