Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The consequences of China Banning the Export of Rare Metals

“A large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy and the bullet is still in the air”  – by New Deal democrat A poster named Micah on Bluesky has written “the China tariffs were a large, slow-moving gun fired at the economy and the bullet is still in the air” By this, he is referring to the […]

Misogyny, Racism, Science suppression

Dr. Jayanta Bhattacharya, famous for leading the charge against lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic, appears to be overseeing a reign of terror at the National Institutes of Health (NIH). The immediate targets: women, minorities and respected scientists at the agency. Merrill Goozner GoozNews From various news sources this morning: Do you remember what you were […]

Housing permits and Starts remain rangebound, while Construction declines further; expect Employment to turn down soon

– by New Deal democrat The housing market has historically been led by mortgage rates. And since those have been relatively rangebound for most of the past 2.5 years in the 6%-7% range, housing permits and starts have similarly followed. This morning those trends continued. Total permits (dark blue in the graph below) increased 23,000 on […]

Impact in Thailand from Cutting off USAID Funding

That people in countries on the other side of our planet will suffer because of one person who despises their existence is tragic. I subscribe to The Bangkok Post because I worked there for weeks at a time also. It is a place of wealth and a place of poverty. A couple of dollars means […]

Jobless claims remain well-behaved, while Philly region manufacturing … isn’t

 – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued to be well-behaved last week. Per this morning’s report, they declined -9.000 to 215,000, while the four week moving average declined -2,500 to 220,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims increased 41,000 to 1.885 million – which, despite the big weekly increase, is right in […]

Autism: nature vs nurture

RFK Jr claims he will discover the “cause” of autism by September 2025. He will fail, for the simple reason that we already know that autism is a genetic disease. Poor RFK Jr. His vaccine-autism connection has been a fail, so he’s grasping desperately for something that won’t force him to admit he’s either a […]

Probable Cause to Believe the Government was in Criminal Contempt of Court

Contemptible – by Joyce Vance Civil Discourse Today, James Boasberg, a federal judge in the District of Columbia, issued an order following a hearing he held in his courtroom almost two weeks ago. That case involved the two planeloads of people the Trump government spirited out of the country, Venezuelans who are allegedly members of […]

Health Insurance, Baseball Caps, and Pardons

Healthcare Insurance My United Healthcare Supplemental Healthcare Insurance Plan took a 21% increase in monthly cost. The customer service person admitted Arizona was seeing a larger of the increases in the United States. I will have to see if it makes sense to go 100% VA. Baseball Caps Don’t where your Chicago Bulls cap anywhere […]

March manufacturing production also shows evidence of tariff front-running

 – by New Deal democrat The former King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, has faded ever since the “China shock” at the beginning of the Millennium. Downturns in production almost always coincided with the onset of recessions beforehand. Since then, there have been several big downturns, in 2015-16, 2019, and a smaller one in 2023-24, […]