by Bruce Webb News that the Republicans are pushing two bills that would establish a ‘Bi-Partisan Commission’ to ‘reform’ Social Security and Medicare are stirring up a debate which mostly had run cold. And one myth is bubbling back to the surface, the one that claims that Reagan simply used the Greenspan Commission to generate […]

By Spencer The weekly initial unemployment claims are widely reported and various charts show how they have been falling since the peak. But it is hard to compare the drop in claims this cycle compared to after other severe recessions in the standard charts showing claims over time. So to make such comparisons easier I […]

by Tom aka Rusty Rustbelt Comparative Effectiveness Research (CER) may have inadvertently lost credibility even before health care reform is actually launched. CER is the darling of the government-dominated health reform movement (not a government take-over, to be clear). The use of evidence-based medicine when combined with cost-benefit analysis has the potential to save a […]

Ken Houghton follows up on his previous post. One of the few honest statements that came out of the Reagan Administration was in late 1982, when the Volcker policies were working but the market was still spooked. “People expect that inflation will be higher than it will be.” The above compares the University of Michigan’s […]

Rdan Firedoglake presents a well written piece on US and Chinese trade policy: China’s Industrial Policy vs. US Random Behavior The U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission has issued its annual report {giant .pdf}. Robert Borosage of the Campaign for America’s Future hosted a conference call for the Co-Chair of the Commission, Carolyn Bartholomew, […]

by cactus Regular readers know that (together with a currently un-named co-author) I recently wrote a book looking at how Presidents performed on a wide range of issues, everything from abortion to the economy. The book is currently scheduled to come out next year (more info as it becomes available), and I’m playing with ideas […]

November 12, 2009Reform: Looking at the Glass Half-Full Part 2   by Maggie Mahar, Health Beat Blog Reform: Looking at the Glass Half-Full, Part 2 The Truth about the Public Option For reasons I don’t understand, progressive pundits have been swallowing Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas Elmendorf’s dispiriting speculation about the public plan, hook, line and […]

Rdan Pragmatic capitalist points us to thinking that works for some. The strategy outlook at JP Morgan is little changed over the last week despite some sobering news out of the labor department last Friday. The bad news on jobs is no longer a surprise to investors and history has shown that past jobless recoveries […]

Robert Waldmann A specter is haunting Paul Krugman — it is the specter of apparently sophisticated forecasters who predict a huge spike in US long term bond rates in the near future. He notes that most investors can’t believe this or rates would already be high. He also notes that some of those who are […]

Ken Houghton notes that playing with data is dangerous. Predicting the future tends to be easy. There are several ways to do it. First, you can predict that everything will grow as it did this year—or last year, or the mean of the past x years. Or you can predict that it will be great […]