JP MORGAN: THE JOBLESS RECOVERY WON’T BE SO BAD
Pragmatic capitalist points us to thinking that works for some.
The strategy outlook at JP Morgan is little changed over the last week despite some sobering news out of the labor department last Friday. The bad news on jobs is no longer a surprise to investors and history has shown that past jobless recoveries were dealt with fine by most major asset classes. Although the jobless recovery creates some greater headwinds than most recoveries it is not an immediate headwind as JP Morgan analysts continue to see a flight into equities as portfolio managers chase performance in to year-end.
While many investors (including your truly) have expressed their dislike for the Fed’s liquidity induced “recovery” JP Morgan sees no issues with it. In fact, they see it as a normalization of the allocation of capital in the markets:
Rdan here…this doesn’t look good for the jobless and the main street economy.
This just emphasizes the chasm between Wall Street and Main Street that is a few Trillion dollars wide and just as deep. Since we support them and not the other way around, Wall Street has nothing to worry about until that fateful day when our money runs out.
This says it all — from “Tom the Dancing Bug.”
Hey what has made America great is financial speculation and absurd risk taking, not people working at humdrum jobs making stuff. Why should Morgan Stanley worry about “jobs”. Those are for the “little people.”
Couple of points…
Chris, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are two different firms.
I’m very familiar with this report. Full disclosure: I’m a front-line retail bank employee at Chase and an old-time, hard-core liberal. This report is not a positive, policy statement from JPMorgan. The question it asks and answers is “What is the outlook for the equity market?” It is a straight-ahead normative analysis.
There’s this one little, itsy-bitsy, thing. Conceptually at least equity prices are a function of profits. And profits are classically made by selling stuff to folks. But iif said folks are un- or under-employed; and the NAR’s housing fairy has gotten into a snit and is not stuffing folks housing piggy banks with money while they sleep; and people are trying to pay down loads of debt; and if the economy doesn’t recover in a sprightly manner — aren’t sales likely to suffer a bit? And might that not have some negative affects on profits.
Setting aside my long held conviction is that the major difference between highly paid financial analysts and race track touts is that quality of their suits, my take is that the financial folks in New York are trying to reinflate the Bush Bubble. I don’t see how that can work. But what the hell do I know?
In any case, J P Morgan-Chase seems to be thinking short term — year end. That’s about six weeks out. Short term, sure … anything can happen … damn the unemployment … there are year-end bonuses to be paid!!!
Ease up please.
JP Morgan would not have made it through the year last year without the $Billions given to them directly and through AIG, Bear Sterns and Lehman countererparty subsidies.
Why would anyone listen to them now?
They are NOT economically smart enough to have avoided this mess. They are merely politically savvy enough to have corrupted your Congress.
Take the Fed and the Treasury Departments interventions away and everyone at JPM (including this rocket scientist) would be in line with everyone at Lehman Brothers.
Sorry; I am perfectly aware that JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are two different entities. However both are now banks.
Maybe it is just me, but the health care debate is starting to look like a “wag the dog” distraction from the issue of financial reform. It goes on and on, and nothing is being done about the real problems with our economy.
Financial reform is making progress in congress, but certainly is second fiddle in the news. It is something to be careful about, and AB will be watching.
it not bad my wife and me both lost are jobs.Now she is cleaning houses for 20.00 hour (25 hr.a week)ME I’m working for a friends electrical Co. for 25 a hour (cash).It look like I will get the $3,000 tax gift from the government when I file my taxes.So its not so bad out there