Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Are the Saudis Saying Drilling in ANWAR is Not Needed?

The GOP was pushing for drilling in ANWAR even when the world market price for crude oil was less than the estimated extraction cost for getting crude oil out of ANWAR. Currently, the market price for crude is about twice this extraction cost and some analysts expect world prices to remain high. One Saudi official […]

Adjustable Rate Mortgages and the Housing Bubble

Why do people take out an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) when buying or refinancing a house? Many economists would probably argue that it should depend primarily on one’s expectations for future interest rates: if you think interest rates are very low and are likely to rise, you should lock them in with a fixed rate, […]

Labor Markets – Then and Now: An Adverse Supply-side Shock?

Kash discussed the recent good news on compensation last Thursday and the lackluster increase in payroll employment on Friday. Kevin Drum noted how one story thought higher compensation wasn’t good news, and CNN notes one economist found weak employment growth “non-threatening” for investors and policy makers. This economist was likely thinking about monetary policy , […]

Understanding the Household Survey Numbers (NRO Fake Award Edition)

When are the folks at the National Review ever going to understand what this footnote in the BLS Household Survey report on employment means: Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003, January 2004, and January 2005. I ask because of who received the first “Jayson Award” from Donald Luskin. David […]

Tariffs on Apparel v. Yuan Revaluation

In a comment to Kash’s post, Mark Thoma provided a link to this op-ed by Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham: DISMAYED by China’s failure to play fair on free trade, we have offered legislation to impose a tariff on Chinese exports to the United States if Beijing continues to keep the value of its […]

Contemplating Life if GM Fails

I think there’s some validity to these concerns voiced by the head of Toyota: OSAKA, Japan (Reuters) – The outspoken chairman of Toyota Motor Corp. said on Wednesday he feared the possibility that U.S. policy could turn against Japanese auto makers if local giants such as GM and Ford were to collapse. “Many people say […]

David Frum on Reducing Poverty in Africa

Frum argues that Africa does not need financial assistance but might benefit from free trade within the Western Hemisphere: African aid relief is the same. Jeffrey Sachs may imagine that he knows how much it will cost to pull Africa from poverty, but almost nobody outside the UN apparatus and the world of pop culture […]

Corporate Pork: the Lease v. Buy Decision

Via bgreer comes this Washington Post story: For the past three years, the Air Force has described its $30 billion proposal to convert passenger planes into military refueling tankers and lease them from Boeing Co. as an efficient way to obtain aircraft the military urgently needs. But a very different account of the deal is […]

Greenspan on the Interest Rate Mystery

Greenspan made some remarks about the Interest Rate Mystery during a conference yesterday in Beijing. Slightly disconcertingly, none of the prevailing theories as to why long-term rates are so low right now are convincing to him… so he’s left admitting that he doesn’t really have an explanation for it. The pronounced decline in U.S. Treasury […]

Are Earnings Rising or Stagnant?

This question is not as easy to answer as it may first appear. In working on various posts last week I came across an apparent contradiction in the official data on compensation: some series show it rising in real terms, while others show it barely able to keep up with inflation. This discrepancy was also […]