Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Event Horizon

When is an event ? Yesterday Janet Yellen said Event studies can therefore be helpful in gauging the financial market effects of such communications. [skip] Last August, the FOMC announced that it would begin reinvesting principal payments on agency MBS and agency debt into longer-term Treasury securities, and over the subsequent couple of months or […]

Based on the German inflation print, the ECB may be less ‘hawkish’ next week than people think

Today the German Federal Statistics Office reported that the February Consumer Price Index is expected to mark a 2.0% (2.047% by my calculations, which is very close to a rounded 2.1%) annual pace in February 2011. This is simply a ‘flash’ print, and the Statistics Office was very careful to discount the fact that inflation […]

The Phillips Cure

House spending cuts hurt U.S growth -Goldman Sachs By Richard Cowan WASHINGTON | Wed Feb 23, 2011 4:50pm EST [fair use skip] “Under the House passed spending bill, the drag on GDP growth from federal fiscal policy would increase by 1.5pp (percentage points) to 2pp in Q2 and Q3 compared with current law,” according to […]

What IR can learn from the NHL

Both Gary and Rebecca cited Marc Lynch recommending “intervening” in Libya: The appropriate comparison is Bosnia or Kosovo, or even Rwanda where a massacre is unfolding on live television and the world is challenged to act. It is time for the United States, NATO, the United Nations and the Arab League to act forcefully to […]

Oil prices and consumer spending.

With the recent surge in oil prices I thought it would be useful to look at the potential impact with one set of data I watch. It is energy as a share of personal consumption expenditures or consumer spending. In the 1970s energy consumption rose from about 6% to 9% of spending, or about 50%. […]

Eisenhower as a lefty politico

An opinion piece in the NYT points us to new docs on former President Eisenhower: LAST week the National Archives released a trove of drafts and notes that shed new light on President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s farewell address, in which he warned America about the “military-industrial complex.” More can be found here. On Oct. 31, […]