I posted yesterday about potential GDP being the center of the business cycle and how labor share reflects potential GDP. I want to go deeper into this using data. P. Krugman wrote yesterday… “We don’t know how much capacity the economy has, but we do have strong reason to suspect that running the economy below […]

There are a couple of easy ways to check out current Federal Public Debt to the dollar or even the penny. One you could check out the National Debt Clock which also is conveniently mirrored (in simplified form) in Times Square. In the top left you will find the number for ‘US National Debt’ at […]

For the moment, let’s go with old saw that “economics is the study of scarcity.” (Though I disagree with it; the proper study of economics is human reaction functions.) What’s scarce these days? Certainly not supply. In an 80%-service economy suffering high unemployment and a unprecedentedly low labor/population ratio, higher demand for massages is not […]

The mystery revealed in this post is that potential GDP and labor share reflect each other. One thing people must realize is that potential GDP describes the center of the business cycle. (See video below for visual explanations.) It seems most people think potential means the top end of the business cycle, but they would […]

Via Economist’s View, Paul Krugman notes a pattern in out post racial rhetoric: So what’s this all about? One reason…, Daniel Little suggested in a recent essay, is market ideology: If the market is always right, then people who end up poor must deserve to be poor. I’d add that some leading Republicans are, in […]

Bill McBride at Calculated Risk points us to some apparent better news State and local government austerity is over I think most of the recession related state and local government layoffs are over, and it appears state and local government employment has bottomed.  Of course Federal government layoffs are ongoing, but it appears state and local […]

Via Business Insider: While campaigning for President in 2008, candidate Barack Obama promised to not alter the way that cost of living adjustments were calculated for Social Security, a policy that is now a key feature of his 2014 White House budget. Addressing the AARP in September 2008, then-Senator Obama drew a major contrast between his […]

I really shouldn’t comment on Simon Wren_lewis’s defence of rational expectations until I have calmed down, but I can’t help muself. I will try to stick to FRED, that is data. Wren-Lewis argues that it is reasonable for macroeconomists to assume rational expectations since the practical alternatives are rational expectations or naive expectations. However most […]

What the —! Well it occured to me, and not for the first time, that a lot of people really don’t understand my Social Security project and particularly what even some of my friends and allies think is a narrow focus on the nuts, bolts and numbers of Social Security financial reporting. It seems to […]