I posted a graph where I overlaid the Effective Demand rule over the Taylor rule variations done by Tim Duy. You can see differences between the rules since the crisis. Why the difference? And does the difference matter? Basic Taylor rule Target Fed rate = natural real rate + inflation + 0.5*(inflation – inflation target) […]
This will be short and sweet, consider it a Health Care Open Thread. ‘Repeal and Replace’ is a pipe dream. Because all the good parts of ACA including guaranteed issue, coverage of pre-existing conditions and inclusions of young people on their parents’ policy actually cost money. At least up front. Which has to come from […]
On Tue, Sep 9, 2014 at 1:47 PM, Dan <[email protected]> emailed: Rortybomb, New Piece on Where the ACA Should Go Next Rorty touts the 2009 House Bill which calls for a Public Option and described here To improve ‘Obamacare,’ reconsider the original House bill Maggie Mahar replies: Originally I favored a public option, but in […]
The San Francisco Fed has a paper, Assessing Expectations of Monetary Policy, where they make a case that the market expects monetary policy to be more accommodative than the Fed is projecting. How could that be when the Fed has been so aggressively accommodative until now? Shouldn’t they tighten already? In my view, the market […]
by Joseph Joyce The IMF and Sovereign Debt The continuing inability of the Eurozone economies to break out of their current impasse means that any optimistic projections of declining debt to GDP ratios are unlikely to be achieved. As long as European governments continue to raise funds in the financial markets on favorable […]
Any one knowledgeable?…leave a comment on winners and losers. Deal book today describes rather ho hum changes in capital requirements for banks with a positive spin: FED’S DIET PLAN FOR BANKS The Federal Reserve said on Monday that it planned to increase the pressure on large financial firms to slim down, DealBook’s Peter Eavis writes. […]
It is commonly known that the CBO projects potential output, but they also have 2 measures for the natural rate of unemployment… a Short-term & a Long-term rate. (link) The description at FRED economic data says… “The natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in aggregate […]
Post updated below. —- Forty-six Senate Democrats have concluded that the First Amendment is an impediment to re-election that a little tinkering can cure. They are proposing a constitutional amendment that would give Congress and state legislatures the authority to regulate the degree to which citizens can devote their resources to advocating the election or […]
If you equate wealth and prosperity (not a crazy equation), then one of the best measures of a country’s prosperity is median household net worth. It arguably says a lot more about prosperity than various income measures. It tells you how the typical household (50% have more, 50% have less) is doing. If lots of […]