Happy Election Day!
Update: To check live results for the Senate Race as each state closes, go here; Huff X Pollster; Election 2014
For weeks now, I have been following Sam Wang’s election notes on the Princeton Election Consortium blog leading up to today’s election. I hope he is wrong; but, it “appears” the best the Democratic Party can do in the Senate is 51 seats and the Democrats could end up with as few as 45 seats in the Senate. The later would be tantamount to a complete role reversal. Then the issue would be, could a rather complacent President Obama play the spoiler and veto Republican objectives for the next two years as there would be no 2/3rd in the Senate to over ride him.
Senate Race Predictions:
Click on the chart for a larger version of it. I expanded Sam’s original Excel Graph to include the hidden columns showing the numbers of polls utilized in this prediction. Sam Wang: “The calculations will test the question of how well we can do with polls alone. As always, we did not do any house-effects corrections or fundamentals-based modeling. This is a polls-only snapshot.
The error bars are SEM of the polled demographic. To calculate win probability, I have incorporated an additional possible 2.5% error to account for polling error/bias. “
Gubernatorial Race Predictions:
Click on the chart for a larger version of it. Sam Wang again:“The same methods were used as for the gubernatorial snapshots. The error bars are SEM of the polled demographic. To calculate win probability, I have incorporated an additional possible 2.5% error to account for polling error/bias.”
I hope the margin of error is correct (or greater) swaying in favor of the Democrats today. Two more years of Republican control of Congress is just unimaginable. David Rothchild at Huffington Post had this to say about margin of error; and how it impacts Democratic candidates; “95 percent of the time the election outcome should lie within that interval. We find, however, that the true error is actually much larger, and moreover, polls historically understate support for Democratic candidates.
I will be happy when the day ends to be free of the election advertisements as put out by the political pacs replete with the outright lies. Who would have ever thought one man, one African American in the Presidency would have caused such a maelstrom of emotion discontent. If many of the malcontents are not used to it by now; just wait, the mix of the population is changing and heavily in favor of minorities.
Reference and Notes:
– Princeton Election Consortium Sam Wang, “Senate and House final snapshots, 2014”, November 4, 2014
– Huffington Post David Rothchild, “Hidden Errors and Overconfident Pollsters,” November 2, 2014
I have not been able to post for the last couple of weeks so I do not know if this gets through, but given the President’s past willingness to send the New Deal down the toilet in favor of a “Grand Bargain”, I am extremely worried that the GOP will gut social security if they retake the Senate and that is looking likely. I do not know of any pressure that can be put on Obama at this point and the GOP would have its cover with a DINO President signing the legislation.
The choice in 2016 willl be a neo lib wall st supporter or a Kochlikan!
Either gonna take from the New Deal to pay the war proifiteers and enslave the masses.
Climate disaster and nuclear war (Putin is bad as Stalin) would be a relief.
This is an interesting election. It’s probable that we won’t know who controls the Senate until 1/6/2015 (Georgia). Another round of ads and BS will follow today.
If the GOP wins I doubt they will take on Social Security. That would cost the GOP the 2016 elections. SS can simmer till 2017. A patch of the DI hole can be accomplished with a “temporary” raid on OASI.
But if the GOP does win the Senate, then you can bet that Congress will pass a Keystone pipeline bill early in 2015. Obama will have to veto it. That veto could be very expensive for the Dems.
We are a country of centrists led by those on the extreme. Go figure.