Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Wages and the Fed.

Both bulls and bears are examining wage growth for signs of incipient inflationary pressures. The current debate seems to assume that wages are completely determined by how much slack there is in the labor market and overall economy. Both conservatives and liberals seem to believe that if employment fall below current levels that wage growth […]

Is Effective Demand showing the limit of the Business Cycle… again?

Effective Demand is basically a demand limit upon the business cycle. Wouldn’t it be great if it could be determined? Then we would know where the limit of a business cycles is. Well maybe we can determine effective demand. A simple equation for the Effective Demand Limit relates labor share to the utilization of labor […]

Global Volatility, Domestic Markets

by Joseph Joyce Global Volatility, Domestic Markets Unlike the global financial crisis of 2008-09, the current disruption in the financial markets of emerging market nations was anticipated. The “taper tantrum” of 2013 revealed the precarious position of many of these nations, particularly those dependent on commodity exports. The combination of a slowdown in Chinese growth, […]