An alterative title might be my usual comment reminding Krugman’s readers of the history of “hysterisis”. Krugman wrote a very clear even better than usual post summarizing how his views on macroeconomics have changed since 2008. It is best to click the link, but the one sentence summary is that he wasn’t surprised by the […]

by New Deal democrat (Bondadd blog) One long term indicator changes to Yellow   One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since middle class wages peaked in the 1970s, the ability to refinance debt at lower interest rates has been an important coping mechanism.  Particularly since the 1980s, […]

by Joseph Joyce   Dilemmas, Trilemmas and Difficult Choices In 2013 Hélène Rey of the London Business School presented a paper at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual policy symposium. Her address dealt with the policy choices available to a central bank in an open economy, which she claimed are more limited than […]

In a report titled “A Deadly Feast: What you are not told about your Thanksgiving turkey,” an advocacy group called Direct Action Everywhere, known as “DxE,” alleged that Diestel Turkey Ranch operated one “picture perfect” farm with about 400 animals in Sonora, Calif. This farm, the group said, was certified “5+” in an animal-welfare system adopted by Whole Foods. (“Step 1″ is […]

The following graph shows a pattern of productivity growth through a business cycle. The graph plots my UT index against Year over Year % change in productivity for the past 41 years. (Link to FRED data for graph, 1974 to present) The UT index is a measurement of effective demand. It measures the difference between effective […]

I received this *.pdf and an invitation to read it from my colleague and sometimes co-author Alessandra Pelloni. I had a lot of thoughts which I post here as they can’t do any harm. Two comments before the jump and 5 after the jump. I think it will be hard to massage the data away […]