by Bruce Webb CBO: SS Scheduled vs Payable Benefits (Rosser’s Equation illustrated) ‘Rosser’s Equation’ is something between an in-joke and tribute to Prof. Barkley Rosser, Jr of JMU, an economist friend of mine who pointed out a surprising result: real payable benefits after projected Trust Fund depletion and subsequent 25% cut will still be higher […]
I’m not certain the authors intend this to mean that a shift to services means that workers will never get paid their MPL. But I think it does. But those at the AEA—er, ASSA—meeting can ask them tomorrow: Jan 06, 2013 8:00 am, Hyatt, Manchester E. More tomorrow. Or some day thereafter.
Casey Mulligan would very much like you to believe it does. “cutting unemployment insurance would increase employment, as it would end payments for people who fail to find work and would reduce the cushion provided after layoffs.” Here’s one pretty well-done data point (several, actually) suggesting that he’s wrong: In theory, greater employment protection should […]
Two days ago, Dan posted an entry by run75441 titled “SCOTUS Chastises Congress and the Executive Branch.” The post’s title wasn’t quite accurate; run’s post was about Chief Justice John Roberts’ annual state-of-the-judicial-branch report, in which he was writing in his capacity as administrative head of that branch, not in his actual judicial capacity, and […]
An important post from Izabella Kaminska at FT Alphaville and recommended reading (h/t rjs): On the new purpose of government debt – Frances Coppola has whipped up an absolutely fabulous commentary on this Bank of Iinternational Settlements working paper on safe assets, which cuts straight to the point of. As she neatly expresses, in our new […]
At first glance the December employment report shows that the trends throughout 2012 were unchanged in December. But within the report there were some greater signs of strength. Private payroll employment showed a gain of 155,000 and the household survey reported a much smaller gain of only 28,000. These changes are about the same as […]
On January 1, Congress approved a tax and spending bill to avert the so-called “fiscal cliff” combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that would have created deflationary pressure on the United States (though Yglesias questioned the conventional wisdom of whether it would necessarily cause a recession). Let’s take a look at the deal in […]
David Atkins succinctly nails the situation we face: No matter what Obama does, Republicans won’t care and won’t fold…This is what makes the poker analogy so often used to criticize the President’s negotiating tactics such a weak metaphor. Obama is often said to be the worst poker player in history, consistently bluffing then folding. But […]
All of the terms in the post title have at least two usages, some of which map upon to common sense ideas from business or household budgeting, some not. Unfortunately the usages that don’t tend to be those used in federal budget reporting, and the result is untold confusion. Now one way out would be […]