– by New Deal democrat Part 1 The decline in prime age labor force participation: the smoking gun (part 2 of 2); comparing June Cleaver and Roseanne Conner I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the “child care cost […]
A fat cat is not in good shape. And feeding it more, will not give it energy to be more athletic. Greenspan said… “in assessing real rates [of interest], the central issue is their relationship to an equilibrium interest rate, specifically the real rate level that, if maintained, would keep the economy at its production […]
I just notice that in the second quarter of 2015 US real gross private domestic investment surpassed US real government consumption expenditures & gross investment for the first time since the data have been collected (1947). The long era of US socialism as lead by Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan and the Bushs has ended under raging […]
by Barkley Rosser (Econospeak) VSPs Get Their Way With Budget Deal: Social Security Benefits Are Cut All the Very Serious People are jumping up and down and cheering. We have a budget deal in the House and the debt ceiling is being raised and there will be no more artificial budget crises until […]
Yesterday a paper came out by John Williams and Thomas Laubach called, Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux. They presented their model to determine the natural real rate of interest. In short, their model gives a steadily low natural real rate that would justify keeping nominal interest rates low. Paul Krugman jumped on board […]
I regularly see people comment about the decline in the importance of industrial production but I never see any data on how much it has declined. Finally, I saw a libertarian blogger talk about as a point in his argument but he also revealed that he had not idea what had happened to industrial […]
by New Deal democrat (Bonddad blog) The decline in prime age labor participation: the smoking gun (Part 1of 2) I recently wrote about the compelling evidence that the biggest reason for the decline in the prime working age labor participation rate was the increase in the number of second-earner spouses who decided to stay […]
The Fisher Effect would say that steady and low nominal interests would bring down inflation as the real interest rises to its natural level at full employment. OK… nominal interest rates are steady and low and inflation is low. So is it really the Fisher Effect that is bringing down inflation? Just yesterday I posted […]
Link to graph The graph shows that inflation expectations are still trending lower. This trend is consistent with the Neo-fisherian view that over time, as the Fed rate stays stuck at a low rate, the expected inflation will trend lower as the real rate seeks to rise to its natural level. We have seen in […]
Good Jobs First has just issued a new report analyzing state investment incentive programs open to small and large businesses alike. With the financial support of the Surdna Foundation and the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation, Shortchanging Small Business: How Big Businesses Dominate State Economic Development Incentives finds that 70% of the awards and 90% of […]