Social Security Policy Options, 2015 Update of 2010’s Social Security Policy Options 36 Options for Social Security. Scored by CBO. Numbers! Graphs! Open Thread! (Because I haven’t read it yet)

As I watch the Dow slip below my attractor level of 17,300, the Fed rate is expected to lift off this week, oil is near $36/barrel and Christmas is close. Usually the markets try to hold their value through the holidays, so this slipping in the stock markets is something to watch. When the Dow […]

I direct you to an article by Adam Posen and Olivier Blanchard called, Japan’s solution is to raise wages by 10%. (Link) The only way that Japan is going to get its needed inflation is to firmly raise the wages of labor. Many of us knew Abenomics was not going to work unless wages rose. And […]

The new update to 3Q labor share came out today. The last two quarters were revised firmly upward. Investors may be concerned about profits after these revisions. I have my own estimation of an effective demand limit upon a business cycle which is based on labor share, capacity utilization and unemployment. Labor share represents effective […]

Facebook founder and his wife have decided to give away 99% of their fortune.   That is $ 45 billion. Now, I know many will heap praise upon them for their generosity.  Same deal when the Gates and Buffet did their give away announcement.  But, I’m not so keen on this.  I know, how heartless of me.  […]

An alterative title might be my usual comment reminding Krugman’s readers of the history of “hysterisis”. Krugman wrote a very clear even better than usual post summarizing how his views on macroeconomics have changed since 2008. It is best to click the link, but the one sentence summary is that he wasn’t surprised by the […]

by New Deal democrat (Bondadd blog) One long term indicator changes to Yellow   One long leading indicator has turned from green (positive) to yellow (caution): mortgage rates. Since middle class wages peaked in the 1970s, the ability to refinance debt at lower interest rates has been an important coping mechanism.  Particularly since the 1980s, […]

by Joseph Joyce   Dilemmas, Trilemmas and Difficult Choices In 2013 Hélène Rey of the London Business School presented a paper at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual policy symposium. Her address dealt with the policy choices available to a central bank in an open economy, which she claimed are more limited than […]

The following graph shows a pattern of productivity growth through a business cycle. The graph plots my UT index against Year over Year % change in productivity for the past 41 years. (Link to FRED data for graph, 1974 to present) The UT index is a measurement of effective demand. It measures the difference between effective […]

I received this *.pdf and an invitation to read it from my colleague and sometimes co-author Alessandra Pelloni. I had a lot of thoughts which I post here as they can’t do any harm. Two comments before the jump and 5 after the jump. I think it will be hard to massage the data away […]