In 2024, before the renewed trade war, the US tariff rate stood just under 2.5 percent. Between the new emergency IEEPA tariffs and national security Section 232 tariffs, we estimate it will rise to 13.0 percent. That’s the highest tariff rate since 1941. The government has been shut down for 40 days, delaying key federal […]
– by New Deal democrat This week the normal empty period for new data after the monthly jobs report is of course compounded by the government shutdown. There is no noteworthy new private data coming out until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky tomorrow. But today let me follow up on some macro […]
Trump is pushing 50-year mortgages as an answer to home affordability. Given his track record, it’s a safe bet that anything Trump is selling is a bad investment. “The appeal of a 50-year mortgage is simple: Home prices are near all-time highs, leaving many aspiring buyers priced out of the market. A longer payback period […]
– by New Deal democrat As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted […]
Looks like the Democrats traded the shutdown for a vague promise, rather than insisting on reversing the GOP Medicaid subsidy cuts. “The bill will keep the government open until Jan. 30 of next year, fund some federal programs like the Agriculture Department for the entire year, and put limits on Trump’s ability to fire federal […]
– by New Deal democrat On a normal first Friday of the month, I would be crunching the official jobs report data to try to provide not just a coincident report on the jobs market, but also to focus on the leading indicators within that report, such as the manufacturing and construction sectors and also […]
If you are in management, typically you will not know everything going on in a department. You may have to ask for clarification. You don’t panic and you do have to answer a comment or a question. Trump could not answer or rebut the reporter’s easy to answer question or remark. When you do not […]
– by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey is a long leading indicator, telling us about credit conditions that typically turn worse a year or more before the economy turns down, and improve just at the economy is ready to turn up. Fortunately, since it is reported by the Federal Reserve, it is unaffected […]
– by New Deal democrat With the shutdown of the official government sources, along with the regional Fed indexes, the ISM manufacturing and services indexes have become especially important. To recap, because of manufacturing’s diminished importance to the general economy, the services index has become significantly more important. For forecasting purposes, I assign a 75% weight […]
Such has been going on for decades. Some history on how much of this evolved historically on the planning side. Equipment efficiencies made planning easier and decreased costs. I started to work in industry late seventies and did so until 2020-something. Fresh out of the service in 71, three years to gain a math-driven BA […]