by New Deal democrat Credit remains loose, but big borrowers aren’t interested; real consumer spending may be stalling We interrupt this coverage of the ongoing Trump Boom (c) to advise you that two more long leading indicators, while still positive, are showing at least some weaknesses. This story is up at Seeking Alpha. As usual, reading […]
Real wages unchanged, real money supply increases in October With October consumer price inflation reported, let’s update a few metrics. First of all, while the YoY% growth in real wages increased: real wages were unchanged month over month, as both nominal wages and consumer inflation both increased by +0.3%:
Initial markers for a manufacturing slowdown now hit I have a new article that hopefully will get posted by Seeking Alpha later today. In the meantime … Two weeks ago I wrote an article establishing a manufacturing baseline for my forecast of an economic slowdown by about the middle of next year. I concluded that by saying: […]
Changes in labor bargaining power take up to a decade to be fully effective Sorry for the recent lack of posting on economic matters. Partly it is ennui, and partly it is a near total dearth of data in between the employment report a week ago Friday and tomorrow’s CPI report. Even a couple of […]
Is It Not The Economy, Stupid? On many Mondays I indulge in taking Robert J. Samuelson to task after his regular Washington Post column of the day. Today he was almost right, or if you prefer, even mostly right. This one was titled “It’s Not the Economy, Stupid” about the outcome of the midterm election, […]
The Death of Shame In any society not in a state of civil war, shame is a powerful force, perhaps the most powerful. Individuals or organizations caught cheating, lying or otherwise doing evil, when exposed and called out, are expected to be embarrassed. They should repent their sins and promise to make amends. Other than […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 5 – 9 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Interest rattes rose even further this past week, portend further erosion in the housing market. As usual, not only does reading this post give you of the up-to-the-moment view of the economy, but […]
Big producer price increase in October – if a trend – is a problem In a light data week, this morning’s report on producer prices is certainly worth mentioning. As you may have read elsewhere, headline producer prices rose +0.6% in October, the highest reading in 6 years. The below graph compares that (blue) with […]
A curious coincidence is that the US midterm elections happened one day after the US reimposed its second round of illegal economic sanctions on Iran, with the focus on oil, shipping, and banking, along with some other sectors. Despite all but a handful of governments around the world supporting Iran in this matter (despite apparently […]
Setting markers for a 2019 slowdown in the jobs market How might a slowdown (not a recession, but a decline in growth to the 1%-2% YoY range in GDP) that I’ve been forecasting for around midyear 2019 manifest itself in the employment arena? One of my mantras is that “hiring leads firing.” In other words, […]