by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The short leading indicators have continued to improve, from awful, to less awful, to merely really bad. But that the NASDAQ briefly made a new high last week, while the S&P was only […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 12: the costs of recklessly reopening begin to come due – by New Deal democrat It is pretty clear now that in general those States (but not all) which left lockdowns the earliest and with the most lax continuing restrictions are suffering renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, *possibly* in several cases […]
Initial jobless claims decline further, but continuing claims fail to make meaningful progress – by New Deal democrat Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker. Twelve weeks after calamity first struck, the theme remains “less awful.” First, here are […]
May inflation steadies: meanwhile, an artificial all time high in “real” wages – by New Deal democrat In May, overall consumer prices declined by -0.1% (blue in the graph below), while consumer prices excluding energy (gas) rose +0.1% (red): Note that in 2015 when gas prices collapsed, prices otherwise continued to increase, showing the underlying […]
Word is circulating that Stephen Miller is writing Donald Trump’s speech on race relations. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Trump’s “solution” to the current malaise in the U.S. will involve extending a ban on immigration and expanding enforcement and expulsion of undocumented individuals. This seems like a safe bet […]
May jobs report: a welcome positive shock – by New Deal democrat HEADLINES: 2,509,000 million jobs added. This makes up about 12% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. U3 unemployment rate improved 1.4% to 13.3%, compared with the January low of 3.5%. U6 underemployment rate improved 1.6% to 21.2%, compared with the […]
There are two insurance-related police reform ideas being discussed. One approach focuses on municipal liability insurance. Many municipalities do not purchase liability insurance to cover lawsuits against officers, instead choosing to self-insure. This is potentially a problem because insurers actually play an important role in loss control. They provide information and services related to procedures, […]
Jobs Report Not Really All That Surprising I am a bit taken aback at how shocked so many are about the new jobs report showing that net hiring in May was positive. For regular readers here I have made several posts here noting that the US economy was almost certainly growing, probably for at least […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 1 – 5 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The interest rate-sensitive long leading indicators largely turned positive as soon as the coronavirus crisis hit. As lockdowns have eased, several of the short leading indicators have also now turned – or at […]
Global Oil Demand Rises Back on April 20 we saw briefly the bizarre appearance of negative oil prices in certain markets. Today for the first time in many months Brent crude briefly topped $40 per barrel, although it fell back below that level (WTI is tending to be about $3 behind it, despite a single […]