by Joseph Joyce The Emerging Market Economies and the Appreciating Dollar U.S. policymakers are changing gears. First, the Federal Reserve has signaled its intent to raise its policy rate several times this year. Second, some Congressional policymakers are working on a border tax plan that would adversely impact imports. Third, the White House has announced […]
Trump’s America First economic strategy looks a lot like the import substitution economic development strategy that was so popular several decades ago—notably in Latin America and South Asia.. But it only had limited success, especially compared to the export led growth strategy followed in East Asia. Import substitution tended to produce fragmented, inefficient and low […]
From Diane Ravitch’s blog: While we’re consumed 24/7 with the Trump/Russia psychodrama, Republicans are quietly, under the cover of darkness and diversion, introducing these new bills in the House: HR 610 Vouchers for Public Education — (The bill also repeals basic nutrition standards for the national school lunch and breakfast programs) HR 899 Terminate the […]
by New Deal democrat Do “high pressure” low unemployment economies lead to more capitalinvestment? The Atlanta Fed’s Macroblog has an interesting article today on whether a “high pressure” low unemployment economy leads to more capital investment. At least based on surveys, they answer in the negative, with companies pulling out the old chestnut of being […]
by New Deal democrat Larry Summers: genius economist, failure at Psychology 101 One of my recurring themes is how macroeconomic theory, no matter how elegant mathematically, consistently errs because it fails to take into account basic psychology — i.e., how the human animal actually works. A big component of this failure is that humans, like […]
by New Deal democrat Do healthier longevity and better disability benefits explain the long term decline in labor force participation? A few weeks ago I took another deep dive into the Labor Force Participation Rate. There are a few loose ends I wanted to clean up (at least partially). One of the most noteworthy things […]
by Sandwichman The “Cutz & Putz” Bezzle, Graphed by FRED anne at Economist’s View has retrieved a FRED graph that perfectly illustrates the divergence, since the mid-1990s of net worth from GDP: The empty spaces between the red line and the blue line that open up after around 1995 is what John Kenneth Galbraith called […]
Last week Timothy Taylor at Convertible Economist did a very good post on gross vs net capital spending. Declining US Investment, Gross and Net He showed that in recent years the more rapid growth of high tech spending has had an unanticipated impact. The new high tech equipment has a much shorter life span that […]
by New Deal democrat Wages and household income vs. housing: which leads which? Sometimes I look into a relationship that doesn’t quite pan out, but it’s still useful to flesh out the process. That’s the story of real wage growth vs. housing. In the last few months I ‘ve pointed out that real wage growth […]
From the Roosevelt Institute comes this graphic on the overall reality of macro policies: The Republicans’ underlying assumption—that corporations invest more and create more jobs only when they are relieved of burdensome tax rates—is false. American businesses already enjoy a historically low cost of capital, and they have more than enough cash on hand to […]