Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions

The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions Between 1931 and the mid-1950s, the yield curve never inverted, and yet there were 5 recessions (1938, 1945, 1948, 1950, and 1954). In particular, the 1938 “recession within the depression” was one of the worst of the 20th century. So in a low inflation […]

Are wages poised to rise sharply in 2018 ?

For the first time since the Great Recession my wage equation says average hourly earnings growth should be higher than the actual data shows.  Moreover, the fitted value is rising sharply.  Each of the three variables in the equation — the unemployment rate, capacity utilization and inflation expectations — is now pushing the fitted value […]

Carbon footprint conundrum

Carbon footprint conundrum would be my title.  Personal involvement is important (macro is too but not the point here), but this list points to involvements well beyond many our imaginations to implement as individuals.  Personal decisions are much harder for the top activities mentioned, and from personal contacts not much on the radar of people’s […]

How Amazon’s Accounting Makes Rich People’s Income Invisible

By Steve Roth (reposted) How Amazon’s Accounting Makes Rich People’s Income Invisible Increasingly, businesses don’t generate profits. They generate capital gains. It’s fiendishly clever. Image you’re Jeff Bezos, circa 1998. You’re building a company (Amazon) that stands to make you and your compatriots vastly rich. But looking forward, you see a problem: if your company […]

After the Global Financial Crisis: Are We Safe Now?

by Joseph Joyce After the Global Financial Crisis: Are We Safe Now? A decade after the global financial crisis the global economy seems (finally) to be enjoying a robust recovery. Economic growth is widespread and includes increased expenditures on investment, a sign that business firms expect continuing demand for their products. With the crisis finally […]

Minority unemployment: progress vs. prejudice

Minority unemployment: progress vs. prejudice On this Martin Luther King Day, let’s take a look at minority unemployment. This got a little attention earlier this month when the December jobs report showed the smallest gap ever between the unemployment rates of blacks and whites. So let’s start by confirming the good news.  Indeed last month […]

Are Voters In Nations With A Poland Problem Especially Sophisticated?

Are Voters In Nations With A Poland Problem Especially Sophisticated?  The argument here is that a nation with a Poland problem has a disconnect between its economic conditions and its political  outcomes.  It could be argued that in such a case the voters of that nation may realize that elected leaders (especially presidents in the […]

Real wages in 2017

Real wages in 2017 Now that we have the report on consumer prices for December, let’s take a look at what happened with real wages in 2017. Consumer prices increased +0.1% in December, and wages for non-managerial workers rose 0.3%,  This for that month the average worker earned 0.2% more. For the year, the nominal […]

Interview with Jamie Galbraith

Via Marketwatch Jamie Galbraith states his thoughts on a how the current US economy functions.  Here are a few snippets: University of Texas economist Galbraith, the son of the famous Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith, believes mainstream economists and the Federal Reserve are too wedded to old ideas to see what is really going on […]

JOLTS report confirms November payrolls strength

JOLTS report confirms November payrolls strength I’m changing my presentation of JOLTS data somewhat compared with the last year or two.  At this point I’ve pretty much beaten the dead horses of (1) “job openings” are soft and unreliable data, and should be ignored in contrast with the hard “hires” series; and (2) the overall […]