Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

IEA Global Electricity Statistical Analysis February 2024

The IEA report covers a February-to-February timeframe 2023 – 2024. When the IEA speaks of evolution, they are reviewing the OECD usage and direction for 13 months. There is a brief summation in the beginning for Fossil Fuel. Renewable Sources, and Nuclear power production. The charts tell the rest of the story for the OECD […]

Decisive Rejection of an Economic Orthodoxy Dominating American Policy for nearly Half a Century

Nice Evening Read. I am not a big believer in tariffs. However, as it is today and from the seventies, domestic companies have relocated to countries to escape avoid associated Labor and Domestic costs prevalent in the United States. Cost such as healthcare, OT, work conditions, Workman’s Comp, SS, etc. and there are issues such […]

Real disposable personal income per capita is also hoisting a yellow caution flag

 – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my Big Picture theme for this year, now that the supply chain tailwind has ended, will the effects of the 2022-23 Fed rate hikes drag the economy down towards recession at last, or will there be a “soft landing” (or no landing at all) instead, because interest rates […]

New home sales: all of the shoes have dropped except one . . .

Angry Bear is fortunate to have amongst its stable of writers, New Deal democrat. I can always count on his having a commentary on a daily basis. If you have not been following his reports on the economy, you should be. A double header today. New home sales: all of the shoes have dropped except […]

After a two-week excursion, initial claims fall back into range; the “quick and dirty” forecast model stays positive

 – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -8,000 last week to 215,000, well within its recent nine month range, after a two week elevated excursion. The four week moving average, reflecting that excursion, increased to a nine month high of 219,750. Continuing claims, with the usual one week delay, rose 8,000 to 1.794 million, […]

The U.S. government is draining 42 million gallons of gasoline from its reserves

by Melvin Blackman QUARTZ Last week? We were talking about market manipulation at the business level and also the state level. The industry intended to cut production so as to maintain prices if California capped prices. California was putting a new program in place to regulate pricing. An AZ state rep was going to California […]

April existing home sales remain deeply depressed, continuing the chronic shortfall in housing supply

 – by New Deal democrat Let me tie this morning’s report on April existing home sales into my two last posts (Part 1 and Part 2), which concerned the huge role that shelter prices, and the underlying shortfall in housing capacity, have in the continued elevation in overall consumer prices. So let’s start by looking […]

A closer look at inflation (Part 2 of 2): how the Fed’s rate hikes actually *exacerbate* inflation in shelter

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I discussed how virtually the entire issue of inflation remaining above the Fed’s target was the housing sector. Let me start today’s post where I left off yesterday: namely, that the net level of divergence between total headline inflation and shelter inflation of 1.15% is one of the highest such […]

The “Wealth Effect” on Spending from Stock-Market Price Changes

by Steve Roth Wealth Economics This post is prompted by Matthew Klein’s (very wonky) post about recent changes in QE/QT, and the Fed’s balance sheet. It prompted me to do a quick calculation that I’ve been meaning to get to: when household wealth increases (due to stock-market price runups or really anything else), what effect does that have […]