– by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims returned to a well-behaved range this week, down -13,000 to 228,000. The four week moving average was in line, increasing 1,000 to 227,000. Continuing claims, with the typical one week delay, declined -37,000 to 1.879 million, which is still near the top end of their 12 month range: […]
Pulling from the latest Krugman article in my email box. The country is on the road to nowhere economically. It is just one story after another which are supposed to convince us something wonderful is going to happen due to Trump deals. Four months in and counting . . . A bit of Krugman keeping […]
– by New Deal democrat Let’s take a belated look at some of the more important datapoints that came out of last Friday’s employment report for April. To start with, as I’ve mentioned numerous times, frequently service jobs (blue in the graph below) continue increasing all the way through recessions. It is goods producing jobs (red) […]
Some old guy handed over a damaged economy in January. The economy was definitely in a failure mode. The economy is heading into very bad weather. Brace yourselves. “Prices and unemployment are heading up. Everything else is going down,” Robert Reich Today, the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates where they are, at 4.25 […]
“A drop in Canada-U.S. travel has led Calgary-based WestJet to cancel more flights south of the border. “The airline says it is suspending flights from Vancouver to Austin until October. “Flights to other destinations, including Orlando, Los Angeles and Chicago will also be halted at different times between June and August. “WestJet says it is […]
For decades, the United States has been the world leader in scientific research. Even as China has been catching up, the US has managed to remain a magnet for scientists world-wide, and its universities are the most desirable destinations for undergrads and graduate students. Until now. “There are significant economic consequences to spiking medical research […]
As everyone should know, tariffs are just consumption taxes. Other countries don’t pay them. Importers don’t pay them. The extra cost is just added to the retail price. “As of 12:01 am ET on Saturday, most auto part imports will come with a 25% import tax. “The previous auto tariffs left US-made cars untouched. Not […]
“As Trump passed the 100-day mark in office last week, the White House touted a growing list of more than 50 announcements by private companies since Jan. 20 to invest more than $5 trillion in the United States. Trump boasted about them Tuesday during an Oval Office meeting with the new Canadian prime minister. “The […]
As presented: – by Bill McBride CalculatedRisk Newsletter Here is the ICE April Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: First-Time Homebuyers Comprise Record Share of Agency Purchase Lending in Q1 2025 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. … today released its May 2025 Mortgage Monitor Report, which delves into the rising share of first-time and Gen Z homebuyer […]
– by New Deal democrat Back in March I took a look at how producers and consumers reacted to periods of high political policy uncertainty, concluding that usually in the past consumers had reacted first, somewhere between almost simultaneously to with a one quarter delay, and producers reacted afterward to the downturn in demand by cutting back […]