Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

On Distribution

Part I of II Was wealth that brought us this far.  The wealthy say that it was them, but it wasn’t.  It was wealth.  Those first surpluses after the climate stabilized were the genesis of civilization, of the modern world.  Gave mankind more time to think, to make better tools.  Gave us democracy and the […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for May 26 – 30

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. As I wrote about here this week, the supply chain effects of the tariffs have finally bled through to rail shipments, and probably trucking as well. Meanwhile, despite all the uncretainty, as we saw yesterday with the personal income and spending report, consumers […]

Talking Healthcare Insurance and One State

What occurred over the last few days in our household was a review of our Medicare Supplemental healthcare insurance (backs up Medicare). We have Plan N which is a good plan. We pay the Part B deductible (if needed) of Medicare which is $257 this year. The rest of Part A and B costs are […]

Decreasing the Population by Cutting Medicaid

At least people talking around the internet do not have to guess what their senator thinks about Medicaid healthcare. One was bold enough and not afraid of elections to say it out in the open. ” for Heaven Sakes” is the right answer. Giving up your healthcare and joining them in not accepting government sponsored […]

April personal income and spending: the last positive front-running report?

 – by New Deal democrat We finish the month of May with the very important personal income and spending for April, which gives us a thorough look at the consumer. In this case it is particularly complicated by the fact that “Liberation Day” tariffs and various further retaliatory increases were imposed at various times during the […]

Tariff-palooza! Implodes – for now; but is it already too late?

 – by New Deal democrat Let me start this post by picking up where I left off yesterday. In yesterday’s post I suggested that an absolute YoY decline in intermodal rail freight might well show up in this morning’s report from the AAR. And as the below chart shows, that’s exactly what happened, with intermodal traffic […]

Buh-bye, Elon

So Elon is headed back to the private sector after a star turn as chainsaw-in-chief and co-president. How did that work out, anyway? “Musk’s original goal was $2 trillion in annual savings, downsized several times to the range of $500 billion. DOGE currently claims $175 billion in savings. But the House bill would formalize barely […]

Jobless claims: unresolved post-pandemic seasonality appears once again

 – by New Deal democrat One of the main reasons I include the last two years when I write about initial and continued jobless claims is that a distinct unresolved post-pandemic seasonality has developed. Even after seasonal adjustment, claims have tended to rise in the late spring towards the summer, and then decline beginning in late […]

Updating the status of tariff-palooza!

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no significant new economic data today, so let’s take an updated look at the downstream effects on the supply chain and retail sales so far from T—-p’s tariffs. To begin with, at least some of the tariffs are indeed in effect. Here is a graph from Ben Casselman of The […]