I changed the order of this article so as to attribute the authors and others in the beginning rather than near the end of this piece. I am reposting this article to Angry Bear Blog and attributing the authors, others, and any organizations which may have played a part in writing this piece. The why […]

Wonder if these expenses will show up on the DOGE ledger: “Early this spring, the Food and Drug Administration fired nearly 50 workers in the Office of Regulatory Policy – only to turn around and order them back to the office with one day’s notice. “After dismissing thousands of probationary employees for fabricated “performance” issues, […]

 – by New Deal democrat Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession. That has only intensified by the utter chaos of tariff-palooza! So my focus now is looking for “hard” vs.”soft” data indicating its impact. This month’s […]

Open Thread for Talk. You can talk about tipping waiters or you may choose a different topic. Initial topic is “tipping waiters.” When we go to dinner, we expect good service and usually get it. A good waiter is typically checking on the restaurant guests and being attentive to their needs. The exchange should be […]

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. Particularly since it is one of two “quick and dirty” elements that will indicate whether the “recession watch” I inaugurated yesterday will need to be upgraded to a “warning.” Initial claims rose 8,000 last week to 247,000, while the four week moving average […]

Too many houses on the market. Opportunity for Buyers. The graph below has the details . . . As taken from: “The Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers,” Redfin, Lily Katz and Asad Khan There are an estimated 1.9 million home sellers in the U.S. housing market and an estimated 1.5 million homebuyers. In […]

“For the very rich who will see enormous tax cuts from this bill, it all might end up being a good deal,” wrote Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute. “For everybody else, it will not.” Economist Details How GOP Medicaid Cuts Would Be Disastrous for Everyone—Except the Super-Rich Common Dreams and Jake Johnson The […]

If we just don’t see it, it didn’t happen, amirite? “Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter. “The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic […]

 – by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my report on the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes by writing “new orders for the entire economy are tight on the cusp of tipping into contraction.” This month, they did, warranting a “Recession Watch.” To recap, because manufacturing is much less important to the economy […]

Josh Marshall won’t come out and say it, but I will. Musk’s attack on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is political kayfabe. Josh points out that they could each draw blood but haven’t. “Both of these guys have very big weapons each can use against the other. Musk can invest money against the GOP budget bill […]