Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 3

by Mike Kimel The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 3… With Gov’t Spending, Money Supply and DemographicsCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. Today I will build a model that explains over three quarters of the annual movement in real GDP between 1929 and the present. The model depends on marginal tax rates, government […]

The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 2… With Tax Burdens Too

by Mike Kimel The Tax Rate that Maximizes Economic Growth, Part 2… With Tax Burdens Too!Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. This post continues my look at the relationship between taxes and growth (what I modestly called the “Kimel curve”), which I will continue expanding on over a series of posts. Today I want to […]

Top Marginal Income Tax Rates & Real Economic Growth, a Bar Chart

by Mike Kimel Top Marginal Income Tax Rates & Real Economic Growth, a Bar ChartCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. The chart below shows tax rates on one axis and the growth rates in real GDP that accompanied those tax rates on the other: I broke the tax ranges into 5 percentage point increments centered […]

The top marginal income tax rate should be about 65%…

by Mike Kimel Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. To maximize real economic growth in the United States, the top marginal income tax rate should be about 65%, give or take about ten percent. Preposterous, right? Well, it turns out that’s what the data tells us, or would, if we had the ears to listen. […]

A Simple Explanation for a Strange Paradox: Why the US Economy Grew Faster When Tax Rates Were High, and Grew Slower When Tax Rates Were

by Mike Kimel A Simple Explanation for a Strange Paradox: Why the US Economy Grew Faster When Tax Rates Were High, and Grew Slower When Tax Rates Were LowCross posted at the Presimetrics blog. If you are familiar with my writing, you know that for years I have been covering the proverbial non-barking dog: the […]

Why the Economy Stubbornly Insists on Growing More Slowly When Taxes are Lower

by Mike Kimel An Economic Theory That Uses Micro Forces to Explain Macro Outcomes: Why the Economy Stubbornly Insists on Growing More Slowly When Taxes are Lower Cross-posted at the Presimetrics blog. I’ve been writing for years about the fact that a basic piece of economic theory does not apply to real world US data: […]

Economic hitman

by Mike Kimel Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. I guess when you’re a very not famous (co-)author like yours truly, people start contacting you with information about their books. I got an e-mail today from another currently very not famous author plugging his book, and I found it to be an interesting concept. The […]

A Proposed Bet for Professors Bryan Caplan and David R. Henderson

by Mike Kimel A Proposed Bet for Professors Bryan Caplan and David R. Henderson (and Anyone Else Who Believes Lower Taxes Generate Faster Economic Growth)Cross posted at the Presimetrics blog. Professors Caplan and Henderson, Both of you have had recent posts that indicate you have some enthusiasm for betting on economic outcomes. (Your co-blogger at […]