Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims: the positive regime change continues, suggesting a lower unemployment rate ahead

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take our normal weekly look at jobless claims. As a general reminder, these are a good high frequency short leading indicator for the economy as a whole, and also somewhat noisily for the monthly unemployment rate. In the past several months, I have highlighted what appears to be a “regime […]

Regional Fed manufacturing indexes suggest rebound continued in January, with continued inflationary (tariff-related?) pressures

 – by New Deal democrat Although the last federal government shutdown has been over for 2.5 months — and a new one might begin this weekend — with the exception of a few headline indicators like inflation, industrial production, and employment, most of the data is still lagging by at least one month, i.e., it has […]

Wealth Tax in California

I follow Robert Reich daily missives on his site. I did subscribe to it. Robert has a habit of commenting on issues or things I would like to know more about. I do agree with much of what he says so it may be one reason why I read him. The topic of today’s commentary […]

Trump administration urges Supreme Court to find California’s redistricting map unconstitutional

Trump is continuing his effort to skew state voting districts starting with California. If SCOTUS agrees with Trump, the decision could have influence on how other states align their voting districts.  SCOTUSblog (Jan. 23, 2026, “California Redistricting,” Amy Howe The Trump administration on Thursday urged the Supreme Court to block the new congressional map adopted by […]

Shutdown ahead?

The murders of Renee Good and Alex Pretti have put Trump and his congressional enablers on the back foot.  Senate Democrats may refuse to fund the Department of Homeland Security, and it is not even clear that the other appropriations bills will pass.  Prediction markets now put the odds of a shutdown this week at […]

The NRA wakes up to ICE

I’m opposed to allowing private citizens to carry guns in public unless they are hunting on public land. The 2nd amendment explicitly links “bearing arms” (nobody “bears arms” into a 7-11) to membership in a well regulated militia, Antonin Scalia notwithstanding. If you believe you need a gun to protect yourself in your own home, […]

Stale data watch: manufacturers’ new orders soared in November — more evidence of AI data center building?

 – by New Deal democrat With another likely government shutdown looming at the end of this week due to DHS funding, we are still playing catch-up from the last one that ended in November. This morning’s edition of stale data was durable goods manufacturing for November. One of the stories of the latter part of last […]

Minnesota

Been to Minnesota camping and canoeing in the boundary waters. Other than swatting mosquitos, it was invigorating the two weeks I was up there. The only other place I have camped (with family this time) was northern Wisconsin on Madeline Island. What has happened in Minnesota is not reminiscent of the state I know of […]