Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What Social Security isn’t

There has always been a lot of misinformation and frank dishonesty surrounding Social Security. Here are three things that Social Security isn’t: 1. A retirement investment. Social Security is insurance. It is not meant to be your sole source of income after retirement (although for many Americans, it basically is). Social Security is not a […]

Tobacco without smoking

When I was in college, I took up pipe smoking. I particularly enjoyed Turkish Latakia tobacco and Native Cigarettes, smoked through a long-stemmed church warden clay pipe. But shortly after I got married, my wife told me to stop. Smoking is a particularly dangerous nicotine delivery system. Nowadays, there is vaping products like these Geek […]

February JOLTS report: soft landing-ish? – except for a noisy jump in layoffs

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog The JOLTS report for February showed stabilization or slight improvement to all but one of its components, generally suggesting, well, stabilization in the overall jobs market. Starting with the monthly changes, job openings (blue in the graph below), a soft statistic that is polluted by imaginary, permanent, and […]

Record wind and solar power generation in Germany. No foolin’.

When I think of the places on the planet that seem optimized for solar and wind power generation, I think of deserts like the Sahara and the desert Southwest in the US. And yet Germany is generating a growing share of its electricity through these renewables: “Preliminary data by energy market research group AG Energiebilanzen […]

Real personal income and spending: if last month was “Goldilocks”, this month was close to “anti-Goldilocks”

 – by New Deal democrat The Bonddad Blog Personal income and spending has become one of the two most important monthly reports I follow, because it nets out the impacts of higher interest rates and abating inflation due to the unlinking of the supply chain. To repeat, the big question this year is whether the […]

Pharmacogenomics and drug safety

New drugs go through clinical trials before they can be marketed. Phase I trials are for safety. Phase II/III trials are for efficacy. If a drug fails these trials, it can’t be sold. One challenge to drug testing is trial enrollment. Ideally, the subjects should be demographically representative. The problem is that there can be […]

Initial claims remain somnolent, while continuing claims pop slightly

 – by New Deal democrat The divergence in the trends between initial and continuing claims continued this week, as the former continued their somnolent good news, while the latter had a slightly disconcerting pop. Initial claims declined -2,000 to 210,000, and the four week average declined -750 to 211,000. On the other hand, with the […]