Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Covid related deaths to accelerate according to CDC

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a dire warning about what is to come for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to its latest ensemble projections. An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts (state and federal) into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. The top row of the figure […]

Coronavirus dashboard for January 6, 2021: new infections vastly outpacing vaccinations

Coronavirus dashboard for January 6, 2021: new infections vastly outpacing vaccinations Total confirmed COVID-19 infections: 21,046,195* Infections last 7 days average: 219,253 Total deaths: 357,258 Deaths last 7 days average: 2,670 Total vaccinations: 4,836,489 *A study just released, based on random blood samples, suggests that as many as 50,000,000 Americans may have already been infected. […]

Coronavirus dashboard for December 29: a final look back at the pandemic disaster in 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for December 29: a final look back at the pandemic disaster in 2020 US confirmed cases: 19,132,726*Average cases last 7 days: 184,005Total US deaths: 333,118Average deaths last 7 days: 2,207  Total vaccinated: 2,127,143 (per CDC via Bloomberg) *Because many asymptomatic people probably never get tests, actual cases are probably more like 26 million, […]

Status quo bias and vaccine supplies

Here is a simple thought experiment on the use of scarce vaccine supplies. Suppose that we had tested the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines with one dose per person and discovered that they were 85% effective at preventing covid-19. However, due to an administrative error, we gave some people two doses, and when we analyzed the data it […]

Rolling Out the Vaccine

Rolling Out the Vaccine  This morning’s (Dec. 25) New York Times offers a panel discussion on the question of who should get vaccinated against Covid first.  Broadly speaking, they take a utilitarian position: it’s interesting that none disagreed with the positions taken by panelist Peter Singer, the world’s most prominent utilitarian philosopher.  And I wouldn’t either, except […]

Yes, let’s vaccinate twice as many people against covid-19

I am very sympathetic to Robert Waldmann’s argument that we should give twice as many people one dose of the new Pfizer/Moderna vaccines, at least until supply constraints are eased, instead of following the FDA approved vaccination protocol and giving everyone two doses right from the beginning. What follows is a rough way of thinking […]