The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a dire warning about what is to come for the COVID-19 pandemic, according to its latest ensemble projections. An “ensemble” forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts (state and federal) into one aggregate forecast to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks. The top row of the figure […]

Having just had an operation at Mass General earlier this week, I was pleased to hear that the nurses I met had their first vaccination. But then I checked the Boston Globe and Med Page Today on our local progress in relation to my own turn. Worth a discussion and feedback on your own locality. […]

Coronavirus dashboard for January 6, 2021: new infections vastly outpacing vaccinations Total confirmed COVID-19 infections: 21,046,195* Infections last 7 days average: 219,253 Total deaths: 357,258 Deaths last 7 days average: 2,670 Total vaccinations: 4,836,489 *A study just released, based on random blood samples, suggests that as many as 50,000,000 Americans may have already been infected. […]

Wear Your Masks Around Others, Socially Distance If You Are Out and About, And Stay Home As Much As You Can! Eric, Dan, and Me

Coronavirus dashboard for December 29: a final look back at the pandemic disaster in 2020 US confirmed cases: 19,132,726*Average cases last 7 days: 184,005Total US deaths: 333,118Average deaths last 7 days: 2,207  Total vaccinated: 2,127,143 (per CDC via Bloomberg) *Because many asymptomatic people probably never get tests, actual cases are probably more like 26 million, […]

While everyone is social distancing (?), wearing masks when out, and staying at home (mostly); there has been an uptick in women and men not getting along together well when confined to apartments or homes. No place to go and the heart may not grow fonder of your-other when confined due to the COVID-19 pandemic. […]

Here is a simple thought experiment on the use of scarce vaccine supplies. Suppose that we had tested the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines with one dose per person and discovered that they were 85% effective at preventing covid-19. However, due to an administrative error, we gave some people two doses, and when we analyzed the data it […]

Rolling Out the Vaccine  This morning’s (Dec. 25) New York Times offers a panel discussion on the question of who should get vaccinated against Covid first.  Broadly speaking, they take a utilitarian position: it’s interesting that none disagreed with the positions taken by panelist Peter Singer, the world’s most prominent utilitarian philosopher.  And I wouldn’t either, except […]

I am very sympathetic to Robert Waldmann’s argument that we should give twice as many people one dose of the new Pfizer/Moderna vaccines, at least until supply constraints are eased, instead of following the FDA approved vaccination protocol and giving everyone two doses right from the beginning. What follows is a rough way of thinking […]

I am going to write more on the topic of Covid 19 vaccines. I will argue that it would be better to give second (booster) shots only when vaccine supplies are plentiful. I think that so long as the vaccine is in short supply, people should be given one dose. I criticise the current policy […]