By Spencer In December industrial production fell 2.0% and manufacturing output fell 2.3% to a level almost 10% below year ago levels . From a level of 100 at the peak industrial production has now fallen to 92.0, or roughly at the average trough level for the 10 post WW II recessions of 92.3%. Three […]
By Spencer This chart from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank is starting to appear on various web sites. Among others, Alex Tabarrok of Marginal Revolution published it. It is an interesting looking chart, very similar to many I do. But it struck me as odd, there was something wrong with it. I can not remember […]
By Spencer It is hard to find anything positive about this employment report. Maybe the best news is the nominal weekly earnings only fell by 0.3%. Since the peak in employment in November household employment has fallen to 97.7% and isnow worse than the declines in the 1974 and 1981 recessions. Employment growth is worse […]
by spencer For several years bond yields were on a glide path well above the inverse of the 1950-1980 yield increase–the dotted line versus the solid line. I thought it would take a Japanese style depression scenario for yields to fall to the solid line glide path. That now appears to be happening.
By Spencer The real trade deficit has been contracting so far this year and accounted for a major portion of growth this year. Just another example of how in the new world the US exports recessions. But this quarter this is changing. We now have Oct and Nov real trade data that will enter into […]
By Spencer The employment report was bad almost across the board. The monthly index of hours worked fell 1.0% to 104.7. Compared to the last quarter average of106.1 this implies that 4th quarter hours worked are falling at about a 5% annual rate. When you compared the employment drop in this cycle we are now […]
By Spencer Brad DeLong said that Krugman eviscerated George F. Will on the level of capital spending during the Great Depression. Delong said:I have never been able to make any sense at all of the right-wing claim that the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression by creating a “crisis of confidence” that crippled private investment […]
By Spencer Everyone interested in analyzing the election should look at these maps: Maps of the 2008 US presidential election results. the difference when you map by population, etc.., rather than by land area are striking
By Spencer Last week I published this map of the counties that voted more republican this presidential election and called it the US poverty belt. Some readers strongly disagreed. But it seems that at least the New York Times agrees with my analysis. This week they publishedFor South, a Waning Hold on Politics One of […]
By Spencer There is a lot of comentary going on around about the depression and I thought I would put my two cents in. First, I would just like to point out that the depression consisted of two distinct recessions, 1929-33 and 1937-38 separated by a full scale economic recovery from 1933 to 1937. It […]