EMPLOYMENT REPORT

By Spencer

It is hard to find anything positive about this employment report. Maybe the best news is the nominal weekly earnings only fell by 0.3%.

Since the peak in employment in November household employment has fallen to 97.7% and is
now worse than the declines in the 1974 and 1981 recessions.

Employment growth is worse than in the last two recessions and is approaching the depths experienced in the most severe recessions.
In the fourth quarter hours worked fell at a 7.8% annual rate. Even assuming decent productivity growth this implies that fourth quarter real GDP growth will be worse than
the -4% to -5% consensus expectations.

George Bush inherited an unemployment rate of 3.9% and is leaving office with it over 7%.
Essentially he reversed the gains we saw under Clinton. Yet our Republican friends say we should continue the policies that generated this record. Just do not learn do they?