In March the CPI increased 0.5% bringing the year over year change to 2.7%. I will leave the analysis of the CPI to other and just discuss some of the implications. First, this caused my Fed policy index to turn positive for the first time since 2008. This index is a form of a Taylor […]

Much is being made of the reported gains in same store sales by major retailers. But it may be best to take these reports with a grain of salt. Until late last year price increases in the retail sector were minimaland the reported retail sales increases reflected real gains. Through year end the Y/Y deflator […]

The employment report was the strongest this cycle as total payroll employment expanded some 216,000. This consisted of a 230,000 gain in private payrolls and a 14,000 drop in government jobs as state and local governments are still shedding jobs. Moreover, the household survey reported a 291,000 gain in employment. The last two months private […]

The CRB: Index of Industrial Raw Materials hit a new cyclical high yesterday. Daily CRB: index of industrial raw materials.This does not include energy and/or foodstuffs. It is an outstanding leading-concurrent indicator of oil prices and world economic growth.

The employment report was one of the best seen this cycle. Total payroll employment rose 192,000 and private payroll employment rose 222,000– one of the strongest this cycle. Moreover the household survey reported employment gains of 250,000.Part of the strength obviously was just a make up for the very weak gains in January because of […]

With the recent surge in oil prices I thought it would be useful to look at the potential impact with one set of data I watch. It is energy as a share of personal consumption expenditures or consumer spending. In the 1970s energy consumption rose from about 6% to 9% of spending, or about 50%. […]

It is starting to look like the cyclical bottom in inflation may be at hand. But there is much confusion over current price changes. There are two types of price changes to consider. One is the change in relative prices. The other is the change in the overall price level, or inflation. Currently we are […]

Signs of stronger growth are showing almost everwhere but the employment data. In January payroll employment grew by 36,000 while private payroll job only expanded some 50,000. Employment as reported by the household survey grew 117,000. This is the third consecutive jobless recovery and the payroll gains have been very weak in all three. The […]

The December employment report showed a continuation of the past few months trend as payroll employment rose 103,000 and the household survey showed a gain of 297,000. Theunemployment rate fell to 9.4%, but almost half of the drop was due to a 260,000 drop in the labor force. The gains in payroll employment reflected a […]

With the release of the November data on real personal consumption expenditures it looks like real PCE growth in the fourth quarter will be over 4% (SAAR) as compared to growth rates of 0.9%, 1.9%,2.2% and 2.8% over the last four quarters, respectively. October real PCE increased 0.5% and November was up 0.3%. So if […]