Much is being made of the reported gains in same store sales by major retailers.
But it may be best to take these reports with a grain of salt.
Until late last year price increases in the retail sector were minimal
and the reported retail sales increases reflected real gains.
Through year end the Y/Y deflator for retail sales rose less than 1%.
But late last year price increases accelerated sharply
In the fourth quarter the retail deflator rose at a 5.5% annual rate and in January and
February it rose at about an 8% rate. The March data has not been reported yet,
but until new information is reported it probably would be best to assume the January
and February experience was repeated.
Also note that in March auto sales actually fell from 13.4 to 13.1 million(SAAR) —
a 2.2% drop.
In January the deflator for GAFO– department store type goods — sales rose at a 4.45%
annual rate, the largest jump in over a decade. No wonder Wal Mart is warning about higher inflation.
i havent seen the breakout for march yet, but february YoY chain sales continued the same trend set in january and over the holidays, with the improvement in buying over recession levels all concentrated in the upscale chains…Saks was up 15%, Neiman’s up 13%, Limited 12%, Nordstrom 7.3%, Macys 5.9%….on the other hand, Costco was up only 4%, BJ’s up 3.9%, Ross 3%, TJX 3%, Target only up 1.8%, & the Gap was down 3%.…
an earlier report had walmart same stores sales down for the 7th consecutive quarter; it seems a lot of people cant afford to shop at walmart anymore, as walmart is losing market share to dollar stores…
WalMart is losing market share to dollar stores. The two categories with the biggest y/y rise in sales in March were wholesale clubs and luxury stores. One appears to represent the improvement in conditions for the well-off. The other appears to represent a scramble by everybody else (with a car) to the cheapest source of goods.
The lack of comments by our readers is telling on this one. Sentences 2, 3, and 4 are important.
Trends need to be looked at, and how money is flowing, and if it is not fodder for the elections in 2012 then no interest??