4th quarter Real GDP

With the release of the November data on real personal consumption expenditures it looks like real PCE growth in the fourth quarter will be over 4% (SAAR) as compared to growth rates of 0.9%, 1.9%,2.2% and 2.8% over the last four quarters, respectively.

October real PCE increased 0.5% and November was up 0.3%. So if December is only up only o.1% the fourth quarter real PCE growth rate would be 4.1%.

This would be the strongest growth in real PCE since the first quarter of 2006.

You can make your own guesses about the other component of real GDP but it now looks like fourth quarter growth will exceed almost everyone’s expectations.

May everyone have a Merry Christmas.