4th quarter Real GDP
With the release of the November data on real personal consumption expenditures it looks like real PCE growth in the fourth quarter will be over 4% (SAAR) as compared to growth rates of 0.9%, 1.9%,2.2% and 2.8% over the last four quarters, respectively.
October real PCE increased 0.5% and November was up 0.3%. So if December is only up only o.1% the fourth quarter real PCE growth rate would be 4.1%.
This would be the strongest growth in real PCE since the first quarter of 2006.
You can make your own guesses about the other component of real GDP but it now looks like fourth quarter growth will exceed almost everyone’s expectations.
May everyone have a Merry Christmas.
And the MSM will try to give Obama the credit, but the voters will note the change in attitude starting from the third quarter when election results were being telegraphed.
I’ve made this prediction several times now, but the 2011 economy will be gaining steam, and by the elections of 2012 republicans will be running and winning on their trickle down, pro-business political environment.
Wow. Wow. If there were any bit of substance behind which to camoflage this speculative silliness, there is a chance we could at leat admire the effort. As it stands, the first response to a purely data-driven economic analysis is a purely partisan fantasy. A prediction about what the public “will” see in data they mainly won’t care about, based on what news outlets “will” say. An election outlook based on an ahistoric reading of how voters will respond to an improved economy two years hence. The economic improvement is the mainstream view, but CoRev takes credit for that, as well, apparently, as all those GOP electoral gains in 2012.
Clap for Tinkerbell.
Wow. Wow. If there were any bit of substance behind which to camoflage this speculative silliness, there is a chance we could at least admire the effort. As it stands, the first response to a purely data-driven economic analysis is a purely partisan fantasy. A prediction about what the public “will” see in data they mainly won’t care about, based on what news outlets “will” say. An election outlook based on an ahistoric reading of how voters will respond to an improved economy two years hence. The economic improvement is the mainstream view, but CoRev takes credit for that, as well, apparently, as all those GOP electoral gains in 2012.
Back during the recovery from the prior recession, one of the points that retail analysts made is that consumers have a three-year tolerance for what’s in their closets. In good times, some folks replace most of their season wardrobe every year, others every two years, and just about everybody every three years. In bad times, the 0ne-year types will hold off a year, maybe two. The two year types have a shabbier closet, so they typically don’t hold off more than a year.
So when that third year rolls around, they look in their closets and say “economy be damned, I’m going shopping”. I haven’t seen that analysis this time, but here we are, and clothing sales were up 1.2% m/m in October and 2.7% in November.
If this is a replacement cycle, then it should last through all 4 seasons, assuming households don’t get scared.
Of course it had to be the election. The point that real average hourly and/or weekly wage growth has turned solidly positive in the second half of the year could not have had anything to do with it.
KH, I stand by my prediction. If I am wrong rhen I will say so.
Spencer, clearly I did not say it was the election. It was the impending obvious change due to the election that made some difference. The economy was already recovering slowly, the election change is what will speed that recovery. Ofcourse, no one can be sure of that because it is a woulda against what is comparison. But, I still expect a sharper climb in recovery than was evident prior to the 2nd half of the year.
What does the election obviously change? Real income? Employment gains?Productivity? Profits growth? capital spending? The dollar? Business or consumer confidence?
Mostly confidence. It also removes some of the uncertainty for businesses to invest. But, the most important change is in the attitiude of Govt toward business. What part of the constant attacks on business, business profits, motives, and general successes make for a positive environment for business growth? What part of the constant class warfare rhetoric adds tor the general public’s confidence to spend and/or invest?
Confidence? In the return to power in the House of the party that led the economic failure that was the Bush era? LOL!
Confidence in the political gridlock promised by the Republican Party? LOL!
The certainty faced by business beginning in January is that even the modest slowing in unemployment since Obama took office will be reversed with the newfound GOP fetishizing of the deficit. And with it, the increase in consumer belt-tightening, leading to reduced demand, leading to more business failures, more layoffs, more unemployment, rinse and repeat.
This must be a new and unfamiliar definition of the word “confidence.”
note that the big increase was in October — where it rose 0.5% — before the election.
No wonder Co Rev is a republican, he seems to have the causal relationship “bass ackward”
Confidence, Yes, you can be confident that business will invest that money, in bonus, stock options, everything but giving a raise to the employees, hiring more, spending the government allowance for R & D in the U.S.A., keeping profits off shore to avoid paying taxs, any others you wish to add.
What I keep seeing here in comments, is the lack of a statistic showing the addition each year to the total unemployed, those eligble to work, but can’t find a job, whether they be graduates from high school, colledge, returning vets. All these people are accumulative, yet are not really mentioned. Consider that as the population ages, the older ones become unemployed, thereby having to compete with the younger ones, which even though they have more experience, (at least in a lot of areas), the older people are at a disadvantage. I’m sure that some bright person has already done the math, but most of these comments, graffs, dont reflect such. These people don’t just disappear into some other dimension, but get lost in the shuffle because to acknowledge their existence, I believe that the pitchforks would be out for the congressional rulers, along with the administration too.
Talking points don’t make it. I realize that trying to satisfy 300 million + people is really impossible with the system we live by today, so, before I pass, It sure would be nice to see that someone or group of someones came up with an answer and solved the problem. Does anyone think that is possible? Or are we just to twiddle our thumbs being satisfied with what we have until it’s all over!
Spencer, remember what I said. “…the change in attitude starting from the third quarter when election results were being telegraphed.” Not the election results, but the foreknowledge of those results.
Do you have another catalyst? Perhaps the Obama stimulus wind down? Or the Obama/Dem leadership performance?
I don’t have a dog in this fight, but did you really think by October that the Democrats were going to do well in the mid-term elections?
I am not surprised that Republicans and Independents were spending more money in October. It may be the case that only the hardline leftists stayed home and sulked instead of going shopping. But only the Shadow knows the truth…
I’ll bet that there were some pretty good bar bills in October.
They reside in NILF the opposite of the Civilian Labor Force. Rebecca did a nice breakdown of the issues here: http://www.angrybearblog.com/2009/12/older-workers-working-longer-labor.html Laurent Guerby also does quite a bit of analyzing of the Unemployed numeric also.