Manufacturing still weak I’m still traveling this morning, but for now let me just note that this morning’s durable goods orders showed a decline again: Figure 1 Manufacturing is flat to slightly contracting. The consumer, primarily thanks to lower mortgage rates, is keeping the economy going.
The Rise and Fall of the Roman Republic: part 4 of 4: the Empire as hegemonic “Banana Republic” ruled by caudillos As we have seen, the Roman Republic was brought down by an escalating series of acts of political violence, from murders to organized political mobs, to private legions, to four military marches over a […]
September existing home sales: a pause in the housing rebound I normally don’t bother with existing home sales, since it is the least economically important of housing data, but it’s a really slow news week, so … September existing home sales were reported at 5.38 million annualized by the NAR. While that is a decline […]
The Rise and Fall of the Roman Republic: part 3 of 4: the final hammer-blows “The Republic is nothing, a mere name without body or form.” – Julius Caesar This is part 3 of my four part look at why the Roman Republic, which was successful and stable for nearly 4 centuries, ultimately fell into tyranny. […]
The Rise and Fall of the Roman Republic: part 2 of 4: the first hammer-blows This is part 2 of my four part look at the Roman Republic and subsequent Empire. In part 1, I described the structure of the Republic, and its several centuries of stability and success, as well as the underlying causes […]
The rise and fall of the Roman Republic: part 1 of 4: Structure and Background “Mortal Republic: How Rome Fell into Tyranny,” by Edward J. Watts “The Storm Before the Storm,: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic” by Mike Duncan “Ten Emperors: Roman Emperors from Augustus to Constantine,” by Barry Strauss I’ve recently mentioned that […]
Positive housing, initial claims, and Philly Fed outweigh negative industrial production So, after a nearly empty week until now, there were four economic reports this morning. Three of them were good. First, although overall housing starts and permits declined, single family permits, the most forward looking and least volatile of the metrics, were only 3000 […]
Scenes from the September jobs report I shared the best good news from the September jobs report released last Friday: there’s a good argument that the economy has reached “full employment,” although we could do even better if real wages improved more. Today let’s look at the bad news, which comes from examining the leading […]
August JOLTS report: nearly all employment measures now neutral The JOLTS report for August showed a decline in all metrics m/m as well as a slowing trend overall. To review, because this series is only 20 years old, we only have one full business cycle to compare. During the 2000s expansion: Hires peaked first, from December […]
Real average and aggregate wages for September Now that we have the September inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wage growth. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in September increased +0.2%, while consumer prices were unchanged. As a result, after rounding, real average hourly wages for non-managerial personnel increased +0.1%. This translates […]