American Manufacturing Jobs Declining Faster?

Yes of course, manufacturing has been declining in the US due to many things, The prime one being exportation of jobs to countries which have less Overhead than the US. This however is different as there may be a miscount occurring. The Fed believes we may be shedding more jobs than what is being accounted for in monthly reports. Along with a cut in the Fed rate, Powell believes and reports we are not properly accounting for job losses. More here: The Fed believes the U.S. economy is actually losing jobs.

Powell believes the reporting may be overstating jobs by an ~ 60,000 per month due to long-running problems in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ “birth-death” model overstating hiring. More as it evolves. The results of which may be seen in a report (partial) by CAP. Some detail below.

There has been historical changes in the US economy that are reflected in economic reports. Manufacturing used to be the equivalent of services. Over the years this has changes with the Service industry being more predominate in the US economy. Manufacturing is roughly 25% of the economy today. The following is a portion of a December report by the Center for American Progress. “Year 1 of the Second Trump Administration made the Working Class Weaker.”

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Typically seen as a route to the middle class for workers without college degrees, American manufacturing has declined under President Trump’s leadership. Such occurring (especially) after the administration’s April 2025 “Liberation Day” announcement of signature tariffs on nearly every country. As shown in Figure 2, 49,000 manufacturing jobs were lost from January to September 2025. Another r8,000 have been lost from April to September. Despite the administration’s stated goal to revive American manufacturing using tariffs, American manufacturers are struggling to meet rising costs much of which is the result of the tariffs. Manufacturing’s decline shows no signs of slowing down: A private estimate of job losses from ADP Research found an additional 18,000 manufacturing jobs were also lost in November.

President Trump inherited an economy with high levels of working-class real wage growth in January. However, wage growth slowed this year for workers without college degrees. In January 2025, real wages for all workers were growing at 2.1 percent annually. But as shown in Figure 3, wage growth has slowed for the working class since January, with wage growth falling by 0.5 percentage points for workers with a high school education or less and by 0.7 percentage points for workers with associate degrees through September.

Real wage growth has declined because workers’ wages are not rising as fast while inflation remains high.

Even though wage growth has slowed, the Trump administration claims a “Trump effect” is producing “higher pay for American workers.” In press appearances, administration officials frequently cite wage figures that do not acknowledge growth has decreased or sometimes do not account for inflation. Of course, this is speculation on the part of the administration. The charts suggest otherwise.

Just some detail which may also be supportive of what Fed Chair Powell is stating on a miscount of Jobs.

“Year 1 of the Second Trump Administration Made the Working Class Weaker,” Center for American Progress