Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

“an unelected billionaire from South Africa was able to intimidate Republican legislators”

Here, some political reading. A South African exercises control and Trump is silent? Isn’t it time for some type of pushback? The population was nervous about Biden, refused to vote for a minority woman of a different color, and millions did not vote in 2020. This has little difference than 2016 when the Mickey Mouse […]

Dollar stores, a bellwether spending store, starting to see signs of belt-tightening

Dollar Stores Are Flashing a Warning Sign About Lower-Income Consumers. WSJ, Jinjoo Lee. Belt tightening from Customers at Dollar stores. Inflation has eased, wage growth has been decent and Americans on average still have more in savings than they used to pre-pandemic. Some might even say the economy has reached a much-vaunted “soft landing.” Low-income consumers, […]

Why Should the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act be Trashed

Cap20 gave this explanation April 2024. Angry Bear posted it July 2024. Here we are in December 10, 2024. Years later and the bill has yet to pay for itself. The bill will be repealed unless Congress acts as It was passed under the Reconciliation rule. Has Congress lost integrity from its failure? Republicans do […]

Upward Revision to GDP and a rise in Home Sales Plus a Positive Outlook for Future Growth

Brief Review of the Economy: Press Release: US Leading Indicators. LEI for the US Increased in November CEI also Improving. LEI Three positive occurrences, today December 20, 2024.  Future economic activity increased 0.3 in November for the first monthly gain since 2022, on strength in the stock market, decreasing unemployment claims, and improvement in building permits. Conference […]

US population continues to grow

If current trends and policy continue, the Social Security Trust fund will be exhausted in the early 2030s and payments will drop by about 22%. If Trump has his way and income taxes are lifted on SS payments, the Trust Fund will be exhausted a year or two earlier and payments are projected to drop […]

I told you (and Ezra Klein) so

Many people including Richard S. Foster of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. and Ezra Klein predicted that the Affordable Care Act’s efforts to reduce Medicare outlays by squeezing providers would not work, because providers could opt out. I said they were wrong (fourth link here). Doctors with office practices can and do opt […]

Not Quite What They Say It Is

An Unparalleled Record of Support for Federal Student Loan Borrowers  Biden-Harris Administration Approves Additional $4.28 Billion in Student Debt Relief for Nearly 55,000 Public Service Workers, U.S. Department of Education Federal Student Loan Portfolio-by-Age.xls Since day one, the Biden-Harris Administration has been committed to helping borrowers who have struggled with the burden of student loan […]

Personal income and spending continue their positive trend in November, but looking late cycle-ish

 – by New Deal democrat Adjusted for inflation, both personal income and spending came in positive once again in November. But under the hood, the report looked a little tepid, and while it certainly wasn’t recessionary, the data was consistent with what I would expect later in the cycle of an expansion. For the record, real […]

AI meets the Department Of Government Efficiency

I have a reflexive skepticism about fads. While AI isn’t exactly a fad, the relentless promotion by the media of an AI future certainly looks faddish to me. That said, there’s no question that AI is making inroads into data analysis. Watson can already read radiological images more accurately than trained radiologists. AI is transforming […]