Coronavirus update: the virus is back; everyone should return to their prior precautions and get boosted this fall
Coronavirus update: the virus is back; everyone should return to their prior precautions and get boosted this fall
– by New Deal democrat
At the beginning of this year, I indicated that I anticipated only writing about Covid if something significant was happening. It is, so let’s look at the data.
Almost all State and Federal testing data is gone, but we do have a very good source in Biobot’s waste monitoring. Here’s the long term view (truncated to eliminate the huge original Omicron spike):
The number of particles per milliliter has nearly quadrupled since late June, from 165 to 618. In the past, this has equated to roughly 125,000-150,000 new cases per day.
All 4 Census regions of the country are affected:
Through one week ago, daily new hospitalizations – which in the past lagged infections by about a week or so – have nearly tripled, from 6,300 to 17,400, the highest level in almost 6 months, and only about 5,000 below last autumn:
And weekly deaths, which in the past has lagged several weeks behind hospitalizations, have also increased from below 500 to over 600:
It is very important to note that the last reliable deaths data (blue in the graph above) is from a full month ago. We already know that the following two weeks (gray) had higher death tolls, but we don’t know by how much. If deaths quadruple as cases have, then we will probably find out by Halloween that by the end of September there were about 2,000 deaths per week, which is back in the range of much of the earlier part of the pandemic.
Why has the wave that started this summer persisted? It does not appear because any of the new subvariants, particularly EG.5 and BA.2.86, are particularly virulent. Indeed, indications are that the next round of boosters, which were tailored to XBB, are highly effective against these variants as well. Rather, as explained in the linked CNN article, tests have indicated that “The people with the highest neutralizing antibodies were those who had recently recovered from an XBB infection.”
In other words, very few people have had new booster shots within the past 6 months, and we know that resistance from mRNA boosters wanes after 4-6 months. The very fact that there were so few new infections in the spring and early summer means that many more people have less resistance now.
The bottom line is, everyone should be going back to their Covid safety precautions, like wearing masks in indoor public places, and everyone eligible should sign up for the new booster this autumn.
Coronavirus special update: the annual summer wave has arrived – Angry Bear, New Deal democrat.
If covid is resurging, people ought to be masking up again.
Looks like no one really wants to do that.
CDC guidance is vague. What’s out there is not current.
Expired Order: Wearing of face masks while on conveyances
Here in Massachusetts…
Mask guidance for Massachusetts residents
“Wearing a mask provides protection against COVID and other viruses, especially when indoors or in crowded spaces. Consider wearing a mask especially if you have a weakened immune system, if you are at increased risk for severe disease because of your age or an underlying medical condition, or if someone in your household has a weakened immune system or is at increased risk for severe disease.
The CDC recommends that you wear the most protective mask you can that fits well and that you can wear for as long as you need it.” (undated)
the CDC’s headline Covid deaths metric now indicates that 2.1% of US deaths were caused by Covid during the week through September 2, up from the 1.0% reported four weeks ago…imo, it’s a pretty useless metric, but it’s what the CDC headlines with, and i’ve yet to see an explanation of how to reconcile that figure with the body count figure showing a considerably slower increase…
Maybe fewer people total died. Rate could increase slower than percent total.
my attempt at tying the two CDC death metrics together:
the CDC reported that Covid accounted for 2.1% of US deaths during the week ending September 2nd, which is indicated to be a 10.5% week over week increase, which means the percentage of deaths due to Covid during the prior week was revised from the 2.0% reported last week to 1.9%…on the weekly deaths graph, confirmed deaths due to Covid rose from 631 during the week ending Aug 5th to 672 during the week ending August 12th…since Covid deaths only accounted for 1.0% of US deaths during the week ending August 5th, that suggests that Covid deaths would be at about 1,325 a week by the time the confirmed data for the week ending September 2nd is available….
Free tests if testing is any utility for control of transmission. COVID tests are low on budget priority for families and probably lots of singles and elderly, too. But the “if” condition is significant.
Is It Time to Wear a Mask Again?
NY Times – August 29
FDA approves updated COVID vaccines to boost protection this fall
Boston Globe – just in