– by New Deal democrat
Initial jobless claims may have ended their recent downtrend.
Initial claims rose 19,000 to 219,000 from last week’s 5 month low. The 4 week average rose 250 from its 4 month low to 206,500. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, increased 15,000 to 1,361,000:
The downtrend of the past 2 months was almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas prices. But in the past 2.5 weeks, according to GasBuddy, gas prices have risen over $.20/gallon. With OPEC deliberately cutting back production in order to cause a shortage in Europe and the US this winter (to aid Russia), it is very likely that gas prices will continue to rise again. If so, I expect jobless claims to rise again as well.
In the meantime, I have more I want to say about the economy in advance of tomorrow’s job report, which I’ll post later this morning.
September 27, 2022, “Gas and oil price update: good news and bad news,” Angry Bear