Missing all the fun on Wall Street . . .
On the road, and missing all the fun on Wall Street . . .
I’m still on the road, and there is no important economic statistic to report, but I will make a brief market comment.
YoY stocks are now down 10%. Except for the very bad 1982 and 2008 recessions, and the 2000 Nasdaq bubble and the 1987 crash (which were prolonged bear markets), that has typically been close to their YoY lows:

And with rare exception that level has only been hit about midway through a recession.
The only time buying a broad basket of stocks at this price reduction has not been amply rewarded within after 2-3 years is during the 1929-32 Great Contraction.
< Sigh > I miss the days when I could read triumphalist diaries by DOOOMers at Daily Kos, who were infallible contrary indicators, and be sure that the bottom was in.
On the other hand, here’s a 12 month graph of Tesla, recently valued at a level equal to if not exceeding the entire rest of the auto industry:

That’s a pretty severe price reduction. Until you zoom out to the 5 year perspective:

Is there any reason for Tesla still to be selling at 10x its price only 2 years ago?
And further, is there any reason for Bitcoin to exist at all?:

On the bright side, a lot of know-it-all smart mouthed 30 year olds are going to STFU.
Uh, Bitcoin is the black market futures bets for narcotics and child sex trafficking, always a winner :<)
NDd:
Best to watch out for those 30-yearolds driving habits. They think they can stop on a dime.
They would have to be able to, given how much time their Tesla Full Self Driving gives them to react when turning over control right before a crash.
The NASDAQ is down about 33% for the year, Bitcoin down about 50%, and the Dobbs index down about 20% since Jan 1. Futures indicated some improvement for today, and indexes were up a bit early on, but finished down slightly (the NASDAQ was up fractionally.)
Stocks edge lower as Fed decision looms over markets
NYT – 4pm
(Markets executed a one-day rally yesterday…)
Global markets shudder as investors see fight against inflation raising recession risks
NY Times – June 16
Stock markets continued their slide today.
S&P 500 : 3,666.77 -123.22 (-3.25%)
Dow 30 : 29,927.07 -741.46 (-2.42%)
Nasdaq : 10,646.10 -453.06 (-4.08%)