Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom

Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom

New jobless claims declined 16,000 to 223,000 last week. This is still 35,000 higher than the low of 188,000 set on December 4; but on the other hand is remains among the lowest weekly figures for the past 50 years. The 4 week average declined 2,000 to 253,250, which is 53,500 above its 199,750 low set on December 25:

Continuing claims were unchanged at 1,621,000, 66,000 above their low of 1,555,000 set on January 1:

I suspect we have set the lows for this economic cycle. On the other hand, I don’t see any particular reason for jobless claims to rise out of their recent range below 250,000 anytime soon, pandemic permitting.

Programming note: I’ll report on the January consumer inflation number later this morning.