Civilian Labor Force Increases by 430,000
Maybe I am wrong on BLS Household Numbers? Has anyone looked at aggregate Participation Rate and the Civilian Labor Force numeric?
Seasonal Adjusted PR is up 2 tenths of 1% and the Civilian Labor Force increased by 430,000 from March to April. Last year, from January 2020 to end of 2020, PR was down 2%
The nation has recouped 2 tenths of 1% in April. Employed is up ~300,000 and Unemployed is up ~100,000. As you well know to be categorized as Unemployed and part of the Labor Force, a worker has to be looking for work.
During 2020, the trend was downward for Participation Rate with blips along the way. It appears the trend is upwards in 2021 for now.
People are going back to work and looking for jobs. This is contrary to what the news is reporting and Republicans want us to believe.
The low wage jobs are typically staffed by women who can also be caretakers of children. Many are still at home (if they can be) taking care of children.
That is my take on what is going on this month. Of course, the politics are rampant. There is nothing to support the premise people are not seeking work.
So what gives, politics! People are not sitting at home waiting for the Unemployment to run out. Civilian Labor Force is growing, which includes Employed and Unemployed and is reflected in Participation Rate.
A goal is to get back to a 63% or 63.4% Participation Rate, what was left prior to trump departed office.
We can use Seasonal PR.
Or Non Seasonal PR to establish a PR goal.
We are still in the grips of a pandemic with many people needing to be inoculated before returning to work. Again in April, 430,000 joined the Civilian Labor Force.
When Participation Rate is down, U3 will not tell you the full story of work force recovery. You have to look at Participation Rate (PR) to see if there is an increase in the Civilian Labor Force as measured by by PR. People looking for work and Unemployed, or working are included in the Civilian Labor Force and those not looking for work and not working are counted in the Not In Labor Force (NILF). NILF dropped from March to April.
The growth in the Civilian Labor Force (consists of Unemployed and Employed) of 430,000 joining the Civilian force is significant