Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jones v USPS

In Jones v USPS, the Postal Service provided weekly service performance data since the beginning of the year. This is the most complete picture of on-time performance that we’ve seen since the mail delays became an issue earlier this summer. The data set is discussed in this post. There was also a hearing today in the Jones case. We hope to […]

Industrial production improves in August, but with sharp deceleration

Industrial production improves in August, but with sharp deceleration If the jobs report is the Queen of Coincident Indicators, industrial production is the King. It, more than any other metric, is found at the turning points where recessions both begin and end. This morning’s report of industrial production for August shows that the recovery from […]

The Seven-Percent Solution: The Not-So-Secret Plan to Downsize the Postal Service

Steve Hutkins authors Save the Post Office on issues affecting the Post Office. First, a disclaimer. The following analysis is largely speculative. It’s not based on insider information. The evidence comes from news articles, government reports, legal filings, and a few leaked internal USPS documents that were published on postal news sites. The analysis could […]

Is Mail Delivery Taking Longer?

Is U.S. mail delivery becoming slower for First Class mail? A New York Times analysis of more than 28 million pieces of mail found that on-time delivery declined noticeably in July and August. This comes after PMG Louis DeJoy put cost-cutting measures in place. Delivery has sped up slightly since the summer but remains slower […]

Coronavirus dashboard for September 14: cases in the Midwest surge; the Northeast still lags Canada

Coronavirus dashboard for September 14: cases in the Midwest surge; the Northeast still lags Canada   Total US cases: 6,519,573 Average cases last 7 days: 34,744 Total US deaths: 194,071 Average deaths last 7 days: 733  Source: COVID Tracking Project I continue to expect the pandemic to wax and wane in relative terms at least […]

The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: the races congeal

The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: the races congeal   Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, since that directly reflects what is likely to happen in the Electoral College. Remember that polls are really only nowcasts, not forecasts. They are […]

To Do I, II, & III

The COVID-19 Pandemic, the inadequate response thereto, and the incompetency of the Trump Presidency in general, combined, have exposed our nation’s weaknesses and failings to an extent unknown since at least the Great Depression. This is likely a do or die moment for America. Recovery will be difficult. Improbable unless we are careful in our […]

Trump’s Law & Order = Ronnie Thompson’s Shoot First and Ask Questions Later

(Dan here…this post has been lightly edited in format for readability) Trump’s Law & Order = Ronnie Thompson’s Shoot First and Ask Questions Later Summer Concepcion reports on something I find very alarming: President Trump leaned into his self-proclamation of being the President of “law and order” further as he appeared to approve of the “retribution” […]