Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

A futile quest

A futile quest, Why “performance” measurement is not working, Minnesota Physician The Independent Medical Business Journal, Kip Sullivan, April 2020 Intro: “Pay for Performance” is not a new catch phrase in the healthcare community, but it is one that has seen a recent spike in interest from the general public and healthcare world alike. The renewed […]

June data starts out with a bright spot in manufacturing

June data starts out with a bright spot in manufacturing Earlier this week the last of the regional Fed Districts, Dallas, reported their manufacturing indexes for June. The overall picture has been a strong rebound: Regional Fed New Orders Indexes (*indicates report this week)  Empire State up +41.8 to -0.6 Philly up +42.4 to +16.7 Richmond up +30 […]

Competency

Competency by   Ken Melvin What is the first criteria when a Board of Directors goes looking for a new CEO? When the construction firm goes looking for a project manager? Of late, too often, US Politics seems to have a new standard for selecting officeholders. We have been, are, watching this horror of a Pandemic […]

Trump’s recent polling in retrospect

The betting markets and statistical models of the 2020 election suggest Trump is either likely or very likely to lose.  I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting to look back at the history of his approval ratings. Trump’s approval trended down throughout his first year in office, with low points in […]

June jobs report: the last hurrah of the wished-for “V-shaped” coronavirus recovery

June jobs report: the last hurrah of the wished-for “V-shaped” coronavirus recovery HEADLINES: 4,800,000 million jobs added. This makes up about 22% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. U3 unemployment rate improved 2.2% from 13.3% to 11.1%, compared with the January low of 3.5%. U6 underemployment rate improved 3.2% from 21.2% […]

Wildly Off Forecasts?

Wildly Off Forecasts? The macroeconomic forecasting business has become quite unhinged in the current situation, with existing models seeming to have their wheels coming off as old relationships simply do not hold and reported data seems unreliable and going in all sorts of directions.  We have already seen this happen regarding forecasts that were made […]

Equivalence

Equivalence by Ken Melvin These two things are not the same. Giving a woman the right of choice doesn’t deny others that right of choice; makes no imposition on the rights of others. Denying a woman the right of choice imposes the will of others upon her. When is it lawful for some members of […]