Trump’s recent polling in retrospect
The betting markets and statistical models of the 2020 election suggest Trump is either likely or very likely to lose. I have no reason to doubt this, but it is interesting to look back at the history of his approval ratings.
Trump’s approval trended down throughout his first year in office, with low points in the summer (Charlottesville, Obamacare repeal) and winter (highly unpopular corporate tax cut). He finished the year with approval around 37 or 38%. In 2018, his approval rose from the high 30s to the low 40s, with a dip in September to around 40% corresponding to the Mannafort prosecution and Kavanaugh fiasco. In January 2019 his approval briefly dipped below 40% due to the month long government shutdown. Since then his approval has bounced around from 41 to 43%, with a surge to 46% in March 2020 due to a relatively small coronavirus “rally around the flag” effect, before falling to around 41% over the past couple of months due to some combination of COVID and his response to the George Floyd murder and the BLM protests. So right now, Trump’s approval is not all that much lower than it has been the past couple of years, and it’s still higher than it was during the highly unpopular policy actions Republicans took while they controlled Congress in 2017. That’s interesting, to me anyway. COVID and Trump’s racist response to the police brutality protests is less of a problem for him than Charlottesville/Obamacare were.
Turning to polls of the contest between Trump and Biden, Biden has been fairly stable since March, at around 50%, and Trump has declined by about 4 points to 41.5%.
I usually don’t get hyped up with polling until September(aka Clinton’s disaster of September is one of the most forgotten parts of the 2016 election upset, which made her prey to political junk like the Comey letter).
Starting on labor day, the real election polling starts mattering, with this years version, it will be interesting how good it can be.
That leaves with 2 more months of obsessing about polling numbers that you say are meaningless.
Why are you so cruel?
I don’t hold much truck with approval ratings. To me it is entirely unclear what the question is. And I guess plenty if other people are the same way.
Trump Uses Fourth of July Speech to Deliver Divisive Culture War Message
NY Times – July 3
Down in the polls and facing a raging pandemic, President Trump cast himself as waging battle against a “new far-left fascism.”
He barely mentioned the coronavirus, even as infections surged across the country. Few in the packed crowd of supporters at Mount Rushmore wore masks.
WASHINGTON — Standing in a packed amphitheater in front of Mount Rushmore for an Independence Day celebration, President Trump delivered a dark and divisive speech on Friday that cast his struggling effort to win a second term as a battle against a “new far-left fascism” seeking to wipe out the nation’s values and history.
With the coronavirus pandemic raging and his campaign faltering in the polls, his appearance amounted to a fiery reboot of his re-election effort, using the holiday and an official presidential address to mount a full-on culture war against a straw-man version of the left that he portrayed as inciting mayhem and moving the country toward totalitarianism.
“Our nation is witnessing a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values and indoctrinate our children,” Mr. Trump said, addressing a packed crowd of sign-waving supporters, few of whom wore masks. “Angry mobs are trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities.”
Mr. Trump barely mentioned the frightening resurgence of the pandemic, even as the country surpassed 53,000 new cases and health officials across the nation urged Americans to scale back their Fourth of July plans.
Instead, appealing unabashedly to his base with ominous language and imagery, he railed against what he described as a dangerous “cancel culture” intent on toppling monuments and framed himself as a strong leader who would protect the Second Amendment, law enforcement and the country’s heritage.
The scene at Mount Rushmore was the latest sign of how Mr. Trump appears, by design or default, increasingly disconnected from the intense concern among Americans about the health crisis gripping the country. More than just a partisan rally, it underscored the extent to which Mr. Trump is appealing to a subset of Americans to carry him to a second term by changing the subject and appealing to fear and division.
“We will not be tyrannized, we will not be demeaned, and we will not be intimidated by bad, evil people,” Mr. Trump said, referring to his political opponents and their supporters.
Under the granite gaze of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt, Mr. Trump announced plans to establish what he described as a “vast outdoor park that will feature the statues of the greatest Americans to ever live,” an apparent repudiation of the growing pressure to remove statues tied to slavery or colonialism.
As he arrived, Air Force One performed a flyover of Mount Rushmore. His campaign promoted the stunt online, calling him “the coolest president ever.” …
Party canceled, a somber reflection for America’s birthday
via @BostonGlobe – July 3
No Boston Pops concert. No public fireworks spectacular. No parades and marching bands in small towns and big cities. Even the beaches and barbecues in Massachusetts feel different and less social.
Welcome to the Fourth of July on the country’s 244th birthday, a celebration shadowed and subdued by the coronavirus, staggering unemployment, and searing questions of America’s commitment to racial justice. …
Questions of racial relations have rarely been as prominent in the national discussion on a Fourth of July. The Declaration of Independence asserts that “every man is created equal,” but the Founding Fathers did not put those words into practice.
Frederick Douglass, the abolitionist who had formerly been enslaved, brought clarity to that discrepancy during an Independence Day speech in Rochester, N.Y., in 1852.
“The blessings in which you, this day, rejoice are not enjoyed in common,” Douglass said. “The rich inheritance of justice, liberty, prosperity, and independence bequeathed by your fathers is shared by you, not by me.
“The sunlight that brought light and healing to you has brought stripes and death to me. This Fourth of July is yours, not mine. You may rejoice, I must mourn.”
‘Huge bummer’: July Fourth will test Americans’ discipline
AP via @BostonGlobe – July 3
The U.S. headed into the Fourth of July weekend with many parades and fireworks displays canceled, beaches and bars closed, and health authorities warning that this will be a crucial test of Americans’ self-control that could determine the trajectory of the surging coronavirus outbreak.
With confirmed cases climbing in 40 states, governors and local officials have ordered the wearing of masks in public, and families were urged to celebrate their independence at home. Even then, they were told to keep their backyard cookouts small.
“This year is a huge bummer, to say the least,” said Ashley Peters, who for 14 years has hosted 150 friends and relatives at a pool party at her home in Manteca, California, complete with a DJ, bounce house, water slide and shaved-ice stand. This time, the guest list is down to just a few people.
Pulling the plug on the bash, she said, was a “no-brainer” because so many of those she knows are front-line workers, including her husband, a fire captain. “I woke up and told my husband I wish it was just July 5,” she said.
Health experts agree this will be a pivotal moment in determining whether the nation slides into a deeper mess. The fear is that a weekend of crowded pool parties, picnics and parades will fuel the surge.
“We’re not going to be arresting people for having gatherings, but we’re certainly going to discourage it,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, public health director for Seattle and King County.
Those who decide they must gather with a small group of family members need to be careful, he said: “Don’t share utensils, don’t share objects, don’t pass them back and forth, because you’re passing that virus around as well.”
The warnings were sounded after a Memorial Day weekend that saw many people emerge from stay-at-home orders to go to the beach, restaurants and family gatherings. Since then, confirmed infections per day in the U.S. have rocketed to an all-time high, more than doubling. …
What, exactly, is “far-left fascism?” Is it the opposite of right-wing communism?
Joel, That sort of makes sense so it must not be what the moron in chief intended because nothing he says makes any sense at all—it is not even nonsense at this point. Some of the folks who voted for him must feel very ashamed right now—the rest will vote for him again but they are irredeemable.
Miller speech writing for trump and accusing Dems of extremism. The Antifa fell flat and trump is just polarizing the nation rather than bringing us together. I would love to be around 50 years from now and read how historians classify trump.
Soon I descend into an area that is ripe with the pandemic. I am sorry we are doing this now. Will practice extreme caution.
This just in
Kanye West Announces 2020 Presidential Run
Hollywood Reporter – July 4
Kanye West announced on the Fourth of July that he plans to run for president in 2020 — potentially to make good on a promise he made five years before during the 2015 MTV VMAs.
“We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States,” West tweeted Saturday evening, along with the hashtag #2020VISION.
Having leaned more into politics in recent years, including a handful of meetings with Donald Trump, the announcement follows numerous statements by West in the past about his intentions to run for the highest office in the land — most recently last November at Fast Company’s Innovation Festival. The difference with that announcement was his presidential sights were set on a 2024 bid. …
Kanye West tweets he’s running for president this year
Whatever the reason, rapper Kanye West tweeted Saturday that he’s running for president this year, a threat he’s made before.
“We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future,” he declared on the current president’s favorite social media platform. “I am running for president of the United States! #2020VISION.”
His wife and potential first lady, Kim Kardashian West, retweeted him. …
The hip-hop star and fashion impresario has been criticized for his friendship with President Donald Trump, a Republican who has low support among Black Americans.
“Your power is not just to vote Democrat for the rest of our lives,” West said at the Fast Company festival. “That’s not the power — just voting on who they told us to vote on. That’s not where the power is.” …
Kanye West tweets he’s running for president this year
A comment by “SW” which ended up at the wrong post by accident.
“I refer to Trump’s approval rating as “The White Supremacy Meter” since he has made such an obvious and blatant appeal for that demographic I believe that this is what it is. That is why it is so inelastic. It doesn’t matter what he says or does or what happens. It is a measure of historically as a nation where we are. It is depressing. Yet there is hope. Statisticians tell us that around 2045 the white population will no longer be the majority. It seems the Republican Party has based its policies on the notion that they have around twenty to twenty five years to enact non democratic measures to effectively turn the country into a 1980’s style South Africa. But the great error in their calculation is that the white population is not monolithic and will not choose uniformity to rally in the cause of racism. For a large fraction of the white population Justice is more important than race. This infuriates the racists. They can’t understand this choice. This is why the cross over point, the change is happening much sooner than they expected. This is why it is happening now.”
“Turning to polls of the contest between Trump and Biden, Biden has been fairly stable since March, at around 50%, and Trump has declined by about 4 points to 41.5%.”
Suggesting that Biden is not doing better. Trump is doing worse. All
he has to do is ‘pull a rabbit out of a hat’ and he he’s back in.
Or have someone do that on his behalf. The electoral college,
as quirky as it is, helps with miracles. Be they in Florida, or
the Great Lakes states, or the vast Red middle of the US.
Dukakis has some advice for Biden: Don’t take those polls seriously
via @BostonGlobe – July 2
… The cautionary tale of Dukakis’s precipitous slide in the polls and subsequent loss to Bush has been repeated many times. The story features public relations gaffes, an ineffective debate performance, and the Bush campaign’s cynical, successful exploitation of a Massachusetts prison release program …