For contact tracing to be effective we need that trace networks to remain simple.
Last week I concluded that cases in our county were low enough that my odds of running into one of the handful of people who did not yet know they were sick were extremely low. Now I have two thoughts about why that math was misguided.
I figured that there were about 5 times as many people infected as reported. Reports now show that is more like 10 or 15 time. On top of that, people who get really sick are only pre-symptomatic for a couple of days, but we don’t know how long asymptomatic people are shedding the virus.
The second thing that worries me about the math is “barhopping”. The math for someone who spends an hour in the a bar once a week is drastically different than for going to multiple bars two or more nights per week. The contact traces for the former behavior is simple. the contact traces for the latter is a disaster.
I would like my daughter to know that I am proud that she has an essential job. I would like her to understand that she also has a responsibility to not carry risk back to her coworker. Part of that is keeping her contacts simple.
The US headed into the Fourth of July weekend with many parades and fireworks displays canceled, beaches and bars closed, and health authorities warning that this will be a crucial test of Americans’ self-control that could determine the trajectory of the surging coronavirus outbreak.
With confirmed cases climbing in 40 states, governors have ordered the wearing of masks in public, and families were urged to celebrate their independence at home. Even then, they were told to keep their backyard cookouts small.
Health experts agree this will be a pivotal moment in determining whether the nation slides into a deeper mess. The fear is that a weekend of crowded pool parties, picnics and parades will fuel the surge.
“We’re not going to be arresting people for having gatherings, but we’re certainly going to discourage it,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, public health director for Seattle and King County.
Those who decide they must gather with a small group of family members need to be careful, he said: “Don’t share utensils, don’t share objects, don’t pass them back and forth, because you’re passing that virus around as well.”
The warnings were sounded after a Memorial Day weekend that saw many people emerge from stay-at-home orders to go to the beach, restaurants and family gatherings. Since then, confirmed infections per day in the US have rocketed to an all-time high, more than doubling.
The US set another record on Friday with 52,300 newly reported cases, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. Arizona, California, Florida and Texas have been hit especially hard.
Despite it all, there will still be fireworks and community events scattered across the nation, with many taking social distancing into account. In Ohio, Upper Arlington’s July Fourth parade will take a much longer route through its neighborhoods so residents can watch without crowding the streets.
“We’re calling it the front porch parade,” said organizer Sam Porter. “We can’t just not do something.”
Fireworks will be launched from four spots across Albuquerque, New Mexico, so that people can ooh and aah from home instead of gathering in a single place.
President Donald Trump was set to travel to South Dakota on Friday for a fireworks show at Mount Rushmore before returning to the nation’s capital for military flyovers Saturday and a mile-long pyrotechnics display show on the National Mall that his administration promises will be the biggest in recent memory. Up to 300,000 face masks will be given away but not required. ,,,
… During a press briefing Thursday to announce that, beginning next week, the state would move into Phase 3 of the administration’s tiered approach to reopening the economy, a reporter asked (MA guv’nah Charlie) Baker why Maine had left Massachusetts residents off its list of people who don’t have to quarantine for 14 days when coming for a visit.
Under (Maine guv’nah Janet) Mills’s “Keep Maine Healthy Plan,” out-of-state visitors from New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are not subject to the 14-day quarantine requirement, leaving Massachusetts — and other areas — hanging in the balance.
There is one alternative: A Massachusetts resident hoping to spend some summer days in Maine can show proof of a negative COVID-19 test, if it was conducted no longer than 72 hours beforehand. But the quick turnaround on testing has proved cumbersome for some hopeful vacationers.
“I don’t know the answer to that question,” Baker said. “But I’m going to call the governor of Maine today and I’m going to ask her, and see what she says.”
Baker said he was surprised to hear that was the case, given the state’s positive test rates recently.
“We’ll reach out to them” Baker added.
The Globe did, too.
Jackie Farwell, a spokeswoman for Maine’s Department of Health and Human Services, said the basic premise of Maine’s approach is to identify states where residents are generally as safe as those in Maine.
“The underlying epidemiological rationale is that if the average resident is generally as safe as a Maine resident, then by coming to Maine they do not bring an increased risk of COVID-19,” Farwell said in a statement. “In its evaluation, the Administration takes into consideration several data measurements and relies on the totality of evidence, rather than any single metric.”
Farwell said Maine wants to welcome Massachusetts residents — which is why the state offers the 72-hour testing alternative.
“We urge Massachusetts to make sure that testing is widely available,” she said.
Farwell said Mills is confident in the assessments done by her public health team.
But if the Baker administration wants to further discuss these data, she said, Mills “has no objection to their public health officials talking to ours.”
It was not immediately clear whether the Baker administration had asked its people to call Maine’s people. …
My post is really about concern that I do not hear anyone – not Dr. Fauci or various governors – saying that when bars are opened, barhopping still needs to be prohibited.
Trump’s Virus Is Spreading, and His Economy Is Stalling
The president leads a transition to sickness.
By Paul Krugman
Just over two weeks ago The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by Vice President Mike Pence titled “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave.’” The article was supposed to reassure the nation.
What it provided, instead, was a clear illustration of the delusions and magical thinking that have marked every step of the Trump administration’s response to Covid-19, producing an epic policy disaster.
Put it this way: By now, according to Trump officials and sycophants, we were supposed to be seeing a fading pandemic and a roaring recovery. Instead, we have a fading recovery and a roaring pandemic.
About the pandemic: The Pence article cheerily declared that “cases have stabilized,” with the daily average number of new cases only 20,000. Even that figure, as it happens, was five times the number in the European Union, which has a third more people than America does. Since then, however, new cases have soared, hitting more than 50,000 by some counts on Wednesday.
Indeed, at this point Arizona, with seven million people, is reporting around as many new cases each day as the whole E.U., with 446 million people.
Some Trump supporters are still trying to dismiss the upswing in cases as an illusion created by more testing. But it isn’t. Cases have grown far more than testing has. Hospitalizations have shot up in Arizona and Texas, which are at the leading edge of the new surge; in both states, hospitals are in crisis mode. (Florida, which is probably in the same situation, hasn’t been releasing hospitalization data.)
The one piece of slightly good news is that deaths from the coronavirus are still falling, in part because the new wave of infections is hitting people younger than the first wave did, in part perhaps because doctors have gotten better at treating the disease. But Covid-19 can be debilitating and cause long-term damage, even when it doesn’t kill.
Also, deaths are a lagging indicator. In Arizona, where the jump in cases began about two weeks before the rest of the Sunbelt, deaths are rising.
The thing is, Covid-19’s resurgence was utterly predictable — and predicted. When Donald Trump declared that we would “transition to greatness” — which is to say, rush to reopen the economy despite a still-rampant pandemic — epidemiologists warned that this could set off a new wave of infections. They were right.
And economists warned that while relaxing social distancing would lead to a brief period of job growth, these gains would be short-lived, that premature reopening would be self-defeating even in economic terms. They were also right.
Don’t be fooled by the big jobs number in Thursday’s employment report — a number that still left us down almost 15 million jobs from February. The report was a snapshot of the economy during the “reference period,” basically the second week of June. So it’s telling us what was happening before the Covid-19 surge became apparent.
We don’t have official data for what has happened since then, but a variety of real-time indicators suggest that the recovery has stalled or even gone backward. Indeed, things started falling apart even before states began reversing some of their previous moves to reopen. Fear of infection will do that: Many people will avoid going out whatever their governors may say.
As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won’t get much better for a long time.
Now, there isn’t a one-to-one correspondence between jobs and the spread of the pandemic. If we had all worn masks and avoided stupid policies like reopening bars and resuming large indoor gatherings, we probably could have had substantial job gains without surging infections. But we didn’t, largely because Trump and Republican governors refused to take sensible actions (and in many cases prevented mayors and other local officials from acting sensibly on their own).
Nor can we simply hit the reset button. Activities we could have safely resumed two months ago, when infection rates were low, aren’t safe to continue given today’s much higher Covid-19 prevalence. That is, we’re in worse shape, even economically, than we would have been if Trump and his allies had taken the pandemic seriously early on.
The really frightening aspect about where we are is that Trump and his people don’t seem to have learned anything from their coronavirus debacle. On Wednesday — Wednesday! — Trump insisted, as he has at every stage of the pandemic, that the coronavirus will “sort of just disappear.”
And the Trumpists are crowing about the June employment number, with no apparent awareness that it’s out of date and the situation has probably worsened in recent weeks.
The sad, even terrifying thing is that Trumpian delusions of success will impose a heavy price on the rest of us.
Right now we should be going all-out to bring the Covid-19 surge under control and making sure that Americans keep getting the economic aid they need. In reality, neither of those things is likely to happen. Infections and hospitalizations will soar further, and millions of Americans will lose crucial economic lifelines in a few weeks.
The next four months are going to be very, very ugly.
First, the white woman bumped into Takelia Hill’s teenage daughter. Then, her husband seemed to try to hit the Black Michigan mother with their minivan.
And just moments later, Hill found herself in a suburban Detroit parking lot, staring into the muzzle of a pistol, as the woman aimed her weapon at Hill and yelled for her to move back.
“You f—— jumped behind my car,” the woman said, later shouting, “Back the f— up!”
The startling confrontation, which was partly caught on camera Wednesday afternoon, quickly went viral overnight. As of Thursday afternoon, video of the confrontation had been viewed about 12 million times on Twitter.
“I am deeply disturbed by an incident last night where a woman pointed a cocked gun at another woman during an argument. This behavior is unacceptable,” Oakland County Executive David Coulter said in a statement Thursday. …
Oakland County prosecutor Jessica Cooper charged the woman who drew the gun and the man who drove the van with one count each of felonious assault, which is punishable by up to 4 years imprisonment upon conviction.
The married couple holds Michigan concealed pistol licenses. Both the man and woman were armed. The sheriff said he did not know whether the man also pointed his handgun.
For some viewers, the scene may offer a particularly tedious sense of deja vu: Just days earlier, a white couple in St. Louis gained national attention after they brandished their weapons at a group of protesters, most of whom were Black and were walking down the couple’s private street. …
Profit Shares Soared After the Great Recession: News You Can’t Get at the New York Times
By Dean Baker
Apparently Steven Rattner, a regular columnist at the New York Times, is unable to get government data on corporate profits. That is what readers must conclude from his column * on the strength of the stock market in spite of a plunging economy. While Rattner rightly points to the fact that interest rates on bonds are extremely low, which makes stocks seem like an attractive alternative, he never once mentions the likely shift from wages to profits that we can expect in a weak labor market.
The bulk ** of the widely touted shift from wages to profits occurred in the weak labor market following the Great Recession. (There was also a shift in the housing bubble years, but this was largely fake profits as banks and other financial institutions booked large profits on loans that subsequently went bad. This would be like recorded profits on fictitious sales.) Workers were regaining their share in the tight labor market of the last five years.
With the coronavirus recession likely to lead to a weak labor market for years to come, especially if the Republicans and deficit hawks can dictate policy, the profit share is likely to rise back to post-Great Recession peaks. This would mean that profits will soar, even if the economy is very weak.
Some Good News in Coronavirus Times: A Rise in the Labor Share of National Income
By DEAN BAKER
I would have blogged on this last week if not for the small distraction of a pandemic. Anyhow, we now have full year data on profits and income, and it turns out there was an increase in the labor share of roughly 0.7 percentage points in 2019. That took us to 64.2 percent of national income. That is still down from 66.2 percent in 2000 and 66.9 percent in 1979, before the period of upward redistribution began, but it is up from a low of 61.7 percent in 2014.
[Graph]
This means that we were seeing workers gain back some of the income share that they lost in the Great Recession, and to a lesser extent before that. Of course, it would have taken several more years to get back to the former labor shares. If we assume a gain of 0.7 pp a year, we could have back to the 2000 share in another three years or the 1979 share in four years.
However, with the economic collapse we are now seeing, all bets on wage and profit shares are off. It is very hard to know how the pie will be divided up when this is over, clearly the policies we pursue now will make a big difference.
It is worth noting that the shift from wages to profits has not been the major cause of wage stagnation for the typical worker over the last four decades. If we were back at the 1979 wage share, and distribution of wages was unchanged, the pay of the median worker would be 4.2 percent higher. That is not trivial, but that is only around 10 percent of the gap between productivity growth and wage growth over this period. Most of the upward redistribution went to CEOs, Wall Street types, and other high end workers.
I would like my daughter to know that I am proud that she has an essential job. I would like her to understand that she also has a responsibility to not carry risk back to her coworker. Part of that is keeping her contacts simple.
The point of contact tracing is that with continual monitoring and testing, new coronavirus cases can be caught and isolated then contacts of those cases can be traced. The more new cases, the more difficult the tracing problem. Also, the less monitoring and testing done the more likely there will be a significant increase in new cases in an area before the new cases are known about.
Tracing the contacts of new cases means they must be spotted quickly. I do not think this is happening to any meaningful degree through the country.
Economic activity is gathering momentum in China, the latest sign that Beijing’s uncompromising approach to tackling the coronavirus is starting to pay dividends even as the U.S. shuts down swaths of its economy in a struggle to contain the virus.@QiLiyanhttps://t.co/v0rZlCJk8m
Economic activity is gathering momentum in China, the latest sign that Beijing’s uncompromising approach to tackling the coronavirus is starting to pay dividends even as the U.S. shuts down swaths of its economy in a struggle to contain the virus.
China’s Economy Regains Strength After Strict Coronavirus Measures
Data suggest that Beijing’s firm handling of pandemic has restored enough confidence to allow recovery to gather momentum
Economic activity is gathering momentum in China, a raft of survey data showed this week, the latest sign that Beijing’s uncompromising approach to tackling the coronavirus pandemic is starting to pay dividends even as the U.S. shuts down swaths of its economy in a struggle to contain the virus.
A reason to look to the economic performance of China now, is that there has been a quiet but influence Western argument over how much to expressly limit economic activity in dealing with the coronavirus. Will the Swedish approach of generally leaving the economy to function “normally” as the virus spread have actually bolstered the economy? What of the British approach, which was not much different than that of Sweden?
Since the 2nd wave of #COVID19 emerged in mid June, #Beijing has tested over 10 million ppl in three weeks, and found 331 confirmed cases. Besides patients and close contacts, workers in food industry, salons, delivery guys, etc, all tested. That’s how you control an outbreak.
Two new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases were reported in Beijing on Thursday, raising the total infections in the city to 331 since June 11, when the first case from the Xinfadi market cluster was detected, the Beijing Health Commission said on Friday.
The new cases were reported in Beijing’s Fengtai District, where Xinfadi market is located.
Three patients from the local cluster infections were discharged from the hospital on Thursday, while the other 324 continue to be hospitalized.
Chinese mainland reports 5 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
A total of 5 new COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Thursday, 3 from overseas, and 2 local transmissions in Beijing. On Friday, the Chinese health authorities also added that there were no new deaths.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,542, and the cumulative death toll at 4,634 with 97 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
If those people who were not afraid of getting sick because they “know” it will not kill them, could still be brought onboard to the idea that they would need to provide names of all their contacts, they might decide that a party with 40 people is too much. Too big of an ‘if’, but I don’t think it is a message that our leaders have tried.
Covid does not have to kill you, it could maim you instead with a crippling disorder. Everyone thinks this a death or home free disease. Its not and there are other consequences.
Party Guests Wouldn’t Talk After 9 Tested Positive. Then Subpoenas Came.
Rushing to contain a coronavirus cluster tied to a big party in a New York City suburb, officials turned to an unusual legal strategy.
By Ed Shanahan
Here’s What Recovery From Covid-19 Looks Like for Many Survivors
Continuing shortness of breath, muscle weakness, flashbacks, mental fogginess and other symptoms may plague patients for a long time.
By Pam Belluck
Part of the message about opening up needs to be that for those who want to take the risk of going to bars or restaurants; some of you may get infected and you need to be prepared to tell the health care professionals who will be there to help you who you came in contact with.
This should apply to my neighbors across the street who are having a 4th of July party as I write this.
Welcome to the “Best Loved Club” where you identify the willful ignorant actions of your neighbors. Thank goodness we have many feet of distance between our neighbors and us. One next door has pool parties for the neighborhood kids and their parents. She (divorced) has others to her home which is really none of my business . . . I do not know how one social distances for this. The same across the street. Scary times.
European Workers Draw Paychecks. American Workers Scrounge for Food.
In the pandemic, the United States has relied on expanded unemployment benefits, while European governments have subsidized wages, avoiding a surge in joblessness.
By Peter S. Goodman, Patricia Cohen and Rachel Chaundler
The nation’s top infectious disease specialist praised Massachusetts’ response to the coronavirus pandemic this week, as key indicators for the state continued to tick downward while dozens of other states see infections climbing.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also pointed to tighter lockdowns in Europe leading infection rates there to drop while US numbers continue to climb, as he appeared Thursday afternoon in a video interview with Harvard Business Review’s Joshua Macht.
Asked about the virus’s slowing spread in Massachusetts and some other states hit hard early in the pandemic, Fauci cautioned that the numbers would inevitably move upward as the state continues to reopen businesses.
“You are going to see infections as we try to open up and go from one phase to another,” Fauci said. “By the way, Massachusetts has done a really, really good job. They have. New York City, even though they got hit really badly, did a really good job of getting it down.”
On Monday, Massachusetts is set to move to Phase 3 of its reopening, which includes casinos, museums, and fitness centers, though Boston will move into Phase 3 on July 13.
“It’s critical that we continue to be smart about how we do this,” Governor Charlie Baker said Thursday. “We’d hate to have to move backwards.”
Fauci said tighter restrictions on movement have proved to be successful in slowing the virus’s spread.
“When the European Union shut down … about 95 or more percent of the [union] truly locked down,” Fauci said. “When we were in our lockdown, about 50 percent of the country was in lockdown.” …
For the first time in months, state officials on Tuesday reported zero new deaths in Massachusetts due to the deadly coronavirus pandemic, an encouraging sign that stood in stark contrast with other states nationwide that have seen recent spikes in their numbers.
The Department of Public Health also said it was decreasing the official total of coronavirus deaths in the state due to “ongoing data cleaning which identifies and removes duplicate reports.” On Monday, the running tally of confirmed and probable deaths was 8,095; that number dropped to 8,054 on Tuesday. …
On this day in 1054: How China Discovered the Crab Nebula- The Song’s Era of Science
By Chollima Report
The Crab Nebula is undoubtedly one of the visual wonders of the known universe. Created from a spectacular arrangement of ionized helium and dust, the Nebula represents the remnants of a supernova star which at some point in the distant past exploded. Formally identified in 1731, the arrangement is visible from Earth via the use of binoculars or a telescope.
However, few know the full story as to how this interstellar icon was first in fact discovered by China, over 600 years before the revival of Western Astronomy in the European Renaissance. The destruction and implosion of the supernova which created the nebula was in fact observed by Chinese astronomers, who in 1054 described the phenomenon as a “guest star” (客星), who observed the appearance of a bright star in the sky that was previously not present.
China in the 11th century was ruled by the Song Dynasty, which whilst it competed with rival kingdoms including the Liao and the Western Xia, and later the Jin, was nonetheless one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world. It would meet its end against the Mongol Empire but this does not negate its extraordinary achievements in innovation.
The Song oversaw the invention of the compass, printed paper money, gunpowder and hydraulic engineering whilst making incredible advances in botany, zoology, geology, mineralogy, mechanics, magnetics, meteorology, horology, pharmaceutical medicine, archaeology, mathematics, cartography, optics and art, all of which would shape the course of the nation’s history into the long term future.
Astronomy was but one amongst many of these achievements. During the era by which the Crab Nebula was discovered in its preliminary supernova explosion, the Song heralded a famous scientist and statesman known as Shen Kuo, who would work with another astronomer called Wei Pu. Shen led the dynasty’s bureau of astronomy and discovered the magnetic concept of the “true north”- and with Wei aimed to focus on the orbital speeds and and positions of the planets.
On this background, it is hardly surprising that astronomers in China made breakthroughs on matters of celestial bodies which pre-dated the achievements of European countries by centuries. As China mapped the stars, the Kingdom of England had not even undergone the Battle of Hastings and the basic record keeping of the Domesday Book. As Shen and Wei sought to map out the Cosmos, the west would believe the universe revolved around the Earth for another 600 years.
The point about Massachusetts, which handled the spread of coronavirus cases poorly early on but well enough after to have brought the spread of infection under control, is that there is likely again a community infection that is spreading in the state * but the large-scale testing and quarantine or isolation that is necessary to control this spread does not appear to be taking place.
* That is what 290 new confirmed coronavirus cases on July 3 indicates.
The latest data comes the day Gov. Charlie Baker announced that the state will be moving on to Phase 3 of its reopening plan beginning on Monday, July 6.
Casinos, gyms and museums can open as early as Monday in Massachusetts as part of Phase 3 of the plan. Like Phase 2, Phase 3 will proceed in two parts, Baker said on Thursday during his daily press briefing.
“This phase will last significantly longer than the other phases so that we can closely monitor the impact to our public health data,” he said.
[ Chris Dillow wrote today * of the United Kingdom government claiming the use of evidence-based policy. I however am troubled. Would evidence-based policy explain this disastrous response to the coronavirus or the intolerable 15.5% deaths to confirmed cases ratio?
I have no interest in blaming the government for the response so far, just in understanding what happened.
… Rohan Dixit, the founder of a medical device start-up called Lief, has decided to move full time — or close to it — into a van, as soon as his order from the van conversion company Ready Set Van comes this fall.
“Rent is really expensive, and I really like being out in nature, and now with coronavirus it’s like all in-person meetings are canceled,” said Mr. Dixit, 34, who lives in Berkeley, Calif. “I don’t really need to be in the Bay Area.” He said his plan was to “go between the mountains and the ocean and anywhere there’s a cell signal.”
Benjamin Fraser, who founded Ready Set Van in March, said he was “blown away by how deep the vanlife dream has permeated culture, and it made me realize we’re actually selling a lifestyle, a whole new way of living.”
He gets about 20 inquiries a day for vans. People have offered to throw in an extra $10,000 to cut in line, which he does not allow. He is soon moving the business into a 15,000-square-foot facility near Lambertville, N.J.
Before vans, he was into cryptocurrency trading, and the van boom times remind him of that heyday, he said. He worries it could disappear just as quickly. “Is it just going to evaporate the moment we have a vaccine?” Mr. Fraser said. …
Is 290 a sizable increase, rather than a random spike?
[ Beijing immediately treated several related infections found on June 11, after weeks of no community infection, as sizable and dangerous and began a large-scale test and isolation program that continues though this new infection spread appears controlled. ]
One new locally transmitted COVID-19 case was reported in Beijing on Friday, raising the total infections in the city to 332 since June 11, when the first case from the Xinfadi market cluster was detected, the Beijing Health Commission said on Saturday.
The new case emerged in Beijing’s Fengtai District.
On Friday, two patients from the local cluster infections were discharged, taking the total number of recoveries to 9.
Consider Israel as Massachusetts. Israel with help from China handled the spread of the coronavirus well, readying quarantine or isolation facilities and protecting medics and gaining control of the virus fairly readily. Israel however has long had a general medical testing problem and when a new cluster of coronavirus cases was found Israel was unable to test rapidly and now Israel has a sharply increasing number of new coronavirus cases.
A state that was once considered a road map for fighting COVID-19 now looks more like a warning sign.
Just one month ago, California seemed to have the coronavirus pandemic under control. Its cities were among the first in the country to implement strict lockdowns, and the state escaped the worst of COVID-19 in the spring. But in recent weeks, a dramatic surge in cases has torn through the state, from the beaches of San Diego to the streets of San Francisco.
For other states that now seem to have their outbreaks under control — Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey among them — California’s seeming reversal of fortune raises a troubling question: Is success sure to be fleeting?
As Massachusetts proceeds with its reopening plan, embarking on Phase 3 beginning Monday, scientists say California’s turn for the worse holds crucial lessons for states that seem to have tamped down major outbreaks. Politicians and the public alike cannot afford to race back to normalcy, they say, rushing reopening plans and abandoning the strategies that have proven effective, including masks and social distancing. Because thus far, no victory has proven definitive.
“People should be very impressed with the job that we’ve done and yet be very cautious in their own behavior given what’s happening nationally,” said Dr. Sarah Fortune, a physician and chairwoman of the department of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Phase 3 “does carry more risk, but that’s not insurmountable given just careful attention to risk mitigation,” Fortune said. “Our state can be more open, and we can keep the virus in check. We just have to be very careful.”
But to see what could happen if Massachusetts is not careful, look west.
In late spring, California seemed to be on track to contain the virus. Despite having more than five times the population of Massachusetts, the Golden State entered June with about the same number of COVID-19 cases and fewer deaths.
On June 1, Massachusetts reported 100,805 total COVID-19 cases and 7,035 deaths. California counted 113,006 cases and 4,251 deaths. Throughout the spring, the number of deaths each day in Los Angeles County, which has a larger population than Massachusetts, never reached above the mid-50s. Meanwhile, the daily death count in Massachusetts neared 200 in late April, the worst point of the outbreak here.
Now, the two states’ fortunes seem to have reversed. As Massachusetts sees a steady decline in infections and deaths, California is facing a crisis. Total infections have almost doubled in one month, and hospitals in several parts of the state, Los Angeles included, are rapidly approaching capacity.
Los Angeles County recorded 2,903 new cases on Monday, its highest count yet. The county is now the center of the state’s outbreak, accounting for nearly half of all confirmed cases. California now surpasses every state except New York for its number of reported COVID-19 infections.
Disease experts say California’s devastating turn for the worse should signal to all states that reopening plans and the public’s resumption of normal activities must proceed cautiously and deliberately, even if the pandemic seems to be in retreat.
“I think virtually everyone in every jurisdiction needs to be very concerned. Because this virus is absolutely relentless,” said Dr. Paul Simon, a physician and chief science officer with the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health. …
The novel coronavirus’s disproportionate impact on long-term care facilities in Massachusetts continued to grow this week, accounting now for nearly 60 percent of all state deaths, one of the highest publicly reported rates in the country.
A half dozen other states — Rhode Island, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Oregon, West Virginia, and Maine, have also reported more than half of all their COVID-19 deaths from patients at long-term care facilities, according to data collected by the Kaiser Family Foundation. Rhode Island appears to have the highest rate in the nation, at about 71 percent, followed by Massachusetts.
Details on infections and deaths within the nation’s nursing homes are spotty — the foundation says only 30 states are publicly reporting data about fatalities in long-term care facilities, angering families and advocates, and making the full impact of the virus’s toll difficult to gauge.
But one thing is for sure: long-term care facilities in Massachusetts have borne the brunt of the deadly disease like few other places, a worrisome trend for the 41,000 people living in nursing and rest homes here. …
At least 67 percent of the state’s 476 long-term care facilities have reported one case of infection, according to state data.
Since April 17, coronavirus deaths in long-term care facilities have represented at least half of all deaths in the state and the trend appears to show no signs of abating. …
Nationally, Massachusetts has the 10th highest nursing home population in the country, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. New York and California have the largest nursing home populations with just over 101,000 patients each. …
Possibly I am not smart enough to understand the nuances, but as far as I can tell the record of Massachusetts in protecting residents against the spread of the coronavirus has been awful:
Buried in N.Y. Budget: Legal Shield for Nursing Homes Rife With Virus
In New York, 5,300 nursing home residents have died of Covid-19. The nursing home lobby pressed for a provision that makes it hard for their families to sue.
By Amy Julia Harris, Kim Barker and Jesse McKinley
Advocates for nursing home residents said there were three longstanding safeguards against bad homes: family members who frequently visit; regular inspections by government regulators; and, as a last resort, lawsuits that can hold negligent homes accountable. But families can no longer visit. Regulators have largely stopped inspecting.
“All of the systems there to protect people are gone,” said Toby Edelman, a senior policy attorney at the Center for Medicare Advocacy. “To me, the combination — rules are waived, protections are waived, nobody is going in to check. And now immunity? That is a lethal combination.”
New Jersey, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin have also passed new measures to shield health care facilities, including nursing homes, from liability.
Governors in at least nine other states — Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Rhode Island and Vermont — issued executive orders shielding health care facilities from most lawsuits related to their response to the pandemic.
Nursing homes are pressing for legal protections in other states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and California…
239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne
The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
Thinking on about the spread of the coronavirus in nursing homes where residents are especially vulnerable. What is disturbing is that when the special vulnerable of nursing home residents was understood early on the precautions taken to protect residents and staff were remarkably ineffective. I find no excusing the poor protection of nursing home residents and staff, but the excuse is almost always implied in the accounts of the spread of the coronavirus.
What strikes me about Trump right now is not the vileness and hatred — we knew all that — but the naked display of panic, his obvious awareness that he can't rise to this moment 1/ https://t.co/ujQzkTYK8a
What strikes me about Trump right now is not the vileness and hatred — we knew all that — but the naked display of panic, his obvious awareness that he can’t rise to this moment 1/
At Mt. Rushmore and the White House, Trump Updates ‘American Carnage’ Message for 2020
His ominous remarks were a reflection of his political standing: trailing in the polls, lacking a booming economy or a positive message to campaign on, and leaning on culture wars to buoy his loyalists.
6:40 AM · Jul 5, 2020
More than three years into his term, Trump confronted his first real crises — Covid-19 and a remarkable surge of national awareness over racism. Another president might have sought to deal with these crises. Trump didn’t even try 2/
He could have listened to experts and done what almost every Western leader did — try to contain the pandemic. Instead, he’s just dug deeper and deeper into denial. He still won’t wear a mask! 3/
And he’s shown remarkable persistence in his belief that racism will work for him if only he turns the volume even higher, despite the evidence of polls 4/
Central to Mr. Trump’s approach, however, is a belief he and some of his advisers share that voters are misleading pollsters about their support for the nationwide protests, several allies said. As he has sought to present himself as the candidate of law and order, Mr. Trump has rejected suggestions from some aides who have urged him to do more to address racism in America, in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd in the custody of police officers in Minneapolis.
Instead, he has intensified his criticism of the Black Lives Matter movement. In a post last week on Twitter, he called the words Black Lives Matter a “symbol of hate” as he criticized plans by the mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, to paint the phrase on Fifth Avenue outside Trump Tower.
It all amounts to a kind of toxic incompetence: he can’t do his job, he knows he can’t do it, but he’ll destroy the country rather than admit his own inadequacy. I wonder how much damage he’ll do if he loses, but is still in the White House for 10 weeks? 5/
Why Do the Rich Have So Much Power?
Americans may be equal, but some are more equal than others.
By Paul Krugman
America is, in principle, a democracy, in which every vote counts the same. It’s also a nation in which income inequality has soared, a development that hurts many more people than it helps. So if you didn’t know better, you might have expected to see a political backlash: demands for higher taxes on the rich, more spending on the working class and higher wages.
In reality, however, policy has mostly gone the other way. Tax rates on corporations and high incomes have gone down, unions have been crushed, the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, is lower than it was in the 1960s. How is that possible?
The answer is that huge disparities in income and wealth translate into comparable disparities in political influence. To see how this works, let’s look at a fairly recent example: the budgetary Grand Bargain that almost happened in 2011.
At the time, Washington was firmly in the grip of deficit fever. Even though the federal government was able to borrow at historically low interest rates, everyone who mattered seemed to be saying that the budget deficit was the most important issue facing America and that it was essential to rein in spending on Social Security and Medicare.
So the Obama administration offered congressional Republicans a deal: cuts in Social Security and Medicare in return for slightly higher taxes on the wealthy. The deal foundered only because the party refused to accept even a small tax increase.
The question is, who wanted such a deal? Not the American public.
Voters in general weren’t all that worried about budget deficits. While most Americans believed that the deficit should be reduced — they always do — a CBS poll in early 2011 found only 6 percent of the public named the deficit as the most important issue, compared with 51 percent citing the economy and jobs.
Both the Obama administration and Republicans were staking out positions that flew in the face of public desires. A large majority has consistently wanted to see Social Security benefits expanded, not cut. A comparably large majority has consistently said that upper-income Americans pay too little, not too much, in taxes.
So whose interests were actually reflected in the 2011 budget fight? The wealthy.
A groundbreaking study of rich Americans’ policy preferences in 2011 found that the wealthy, unlike voters in general, did prioritize deficit reduction over everything else. They also, in stark contrast with the general public, favored cuts in Social Security and health spending.
And while a few high-profile billionaires like Warren Buffett have called for higher taxes on people like themselves, the reality is that most billionaires are obsessed with cutting taxes, like the estate tax, that only the rich pay.
In other words, in 2011 a Democratic administration went all-in on behalf of a policy concern that only the rich gave priority and failed to reach a deal only because Republicans didn’t want the rich to bear any burden at all.
“COVID has wiped out 10 percent of Massachusetts’ nursing home population,” Barbara Anthony, a senior health care fellow at the Pioneer Institute, said in a statement. “The state needs to take affirmative steps to control infection and prepare nursing homes for the duration of the pandemic and beyond,” …
As of Tuesday, the state Department of Public Health had reported 23,453 total probable or confirmed COVID-19 cases in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, with 5,106 deaths reported in those centers alone. At least one case has been reported in 369 facilities. …
Over the month’s first five days, the United States reported its three largest daily case totals. Fourteen states recorded single-day highs. In all, more than 250,000 new cases were announced nationwide, the equivalent of every person in Reno catching the virus in less than a week.
“The situation is that we are experiencing rampant community spread,” said Clay Jenkins, the top elected official in Dallas County, Texas, where more than 2,000 new cases were announced over the weekend. Mr. Jenkins pleaded with residents to “move from selfishness to sacrifice” and wear a mask in public.
Across much of the country, the outlook was worsening quickly.
On Sunday, Texas and Florida both surpassed 200,000 total cases. In Mississippi, where nearly every county has reported an uptick in cases, the speaker of the State House of Representatives was among several lawmakers to test positive. And in Starr County, Texas, along the Mexican border, cases were being identified by the hundreds and hospitals were running out of room.
“The local and valley hospitals are at full capacity and have no more beds available,” Eloy Vera, the top official in Starr County, said in a Facebook post. “I urge all of our residents to please shelter-in-place, wear face coverings, practice social distancing and AVOID GATHERINGS.”
Meanwhile, new case clusters emerged as people resumed their pre-pandemic routines. At least 16 infections were linked to a church in San Antonio. Ninety-five people tested positive at a housing facility for farmworkers in Oxnard, Calif. In Missouri, a summer camp shut down after more than 40 people, including campers and employees, tested positive. …
For contact tracing to be effective we need that trace networks to remain simple.
Last week I concluded that cases in our county were low enough that my odds of running into one of the handful of people who did not yet know they were sick were extremely low. Now I have two thoughts about why that math was misguided.
I figured that there were about 5 times as many people infected as reported. Reports now show that is more like 10 or 15 time. On top of that, people who get really sick are only pre-symptomatic for a couple of days, but we don’t know how long asymptomatic people are shedding the virus.
The second thing that worries me about the math is “barhopping”. The math for someone who spends an hour in the a bar once a week is drastically different than for going to multiple bars two or more nights per week. The contact traces for the former behavior is simple. the contact traces for the latter is a disaster.
I would like my daughter to know that I am proud that she has an essential job. I would like her to understand that she also has a responsibility to not carry risk back to her coworker. Part of that is keeping her contacts simple.
As coronavirus cases rise, Fourth of July weekend will test Americans’ discipline
AP via @BostonGlobe
The US headed into the Fourth of July weekend with many parades and fireworks displays canceled, beaches and bars closed, and health authorities warning that this will be a crucial test of Americans’ self-control that could determine the trajectory of the surging coronavirus outbreak.
With confirmed cases climbing in 40 states, governors have ordered the wearing of masks in public, and families were urged to celebrate their independence at home. Even then, they were told to keep their backyard cookouts small.
Health experts agree this will be a pivotal moment in determining whether the nation slides into a deeper mess. The fear is that a weekend of crowded pool parties, picnics and parades will fuel the surge.
“We’re not going to be arresting people for having gatherings, but we’re certainly going to discourage it,” said Dr. Jeff Duchin, public health director for Seattle and King County.
Those who decide they must gather with a small group of family members need to be careful, he said: “Don’t share utensils, don’t share objects, don’t pass them back and forth, because you’re passing that virus around as well.”
The warnings were sounded after a Memorial Day weekend that saw many people emerge from stay-at-home orders to go to the beach, restaurants and family gatherings. Since then, confirmed infections per day in the US have rocketed to an all-time high, more than doubling.
The US set another record on Friday with 52,300 newly reported cases, according to the tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. Arizona, California, Florida and Texas have been hit especially hard.
Despite it all, there will still be fireworks and community events scattered across the nation, with many taking social distancing into account. In Ohio, Upper Arlington’s July Fourth parade will take a much longer route through its neighborhoods so residents can watch without crowding the streets.
“We’re calling it the front porch parade,” said organizer Sam Porter. “We can’t just not do something.”
Fireworks will be launched from four spots across Albuquerque, New Mexico, so that people can ooh and aah from home instead of gathering in a single place.
President Donald Trump was set to travel to South Dakota on Friday for a fireworks show at Mount Rushmore before returning to the nation’s capital for military flyovers Saturday and a mile-long pyrotechnics display show on the National Mall that his administration promises will be the biggest in recent memory. Up to 300,000 face masks will be given away but not required. ,,,
Maine explains travel restrictions against Mass. residents
via @BostonGlobe
… During a press briefing Thursday to announce that, beginning next week, the state would move into Phase 3 of the administration’s tiered approach to reopening the economy, a reporter asked (MA guv’nah Charlie) Baker why Maine had left Massachusetts residents off its list of people who don’t have to quarantine for 14 days when coming for a visit.
Under (Maine guv’nah Janet) Mills’s “Keep Maine Healthy Plan,” out-of-state visitors from New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut are not subject to the 14-day quarantine requirement, leaving Massachusetts — and other areas — hanging in the balance.
There is one alternative: A Massachusetts resident hoping to spend some summer days in Maine can show proof of a negative COVID-19 test, if it was conducted no longer than 72 hours beforehand. But the quick turnaround on testing has proved cumbersome for some hopeful vacationers.
“I don’t know the answer to that question,” Baker said. “But I’m going to call the governor of Maine today and I’m going to ask her, and see what she says.”
Baker said he was surprised to hear that was the case, given the state’s positive test rates recently.
“We’ll reach out to them” Baker added.
The Globe did, too.
Jackie Farwell, a spokeswoman for Maine’s Department of Health and Human Services, said the basic premise of Maine’s approach is to identify states where residents are generally as safe as those in Maine.
“The underlying epidemiological rationale is that if the average resident is generally as safe as a Maine resident, then by coming to Maine they do not bring an increased risk of COVID-19,” Farwell said in a statement. “In its evaluation, the Administration takes into consideration several data measurements and relies on the totality of evidence, rather than any single metric.”
Farwell said Maine wants to welcome Massachusetts residents — which is why the state offers the 72-hour testing alternative.
“We urge Massachusetts to make sure that testing is widely available,” she said.
Farwell said Mills is confident in the assessments done by her public health team.
But if the Baker administration wants to further discuss these data, she said, Mills “has no objection to their public health officials talking to ours.”
It was not immediately clear whether the Baker administration had asked its people to call Maine’s people. …
Perhaps what Maine needs to do is ask whether the vacationers can provide a clear set of contacts for the last 14 days.
My post is really about concern that I do not hear anyone – not Dr. Fauci or various governors – saying that when bars are opened, barhopping still needs to be prohibited.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/opinion/trump-covid-economy.html
July 2, 2020
Trump’s Virus Is Spreading, and His Economy Is Stalling
The president leads a transition to sickness.
By Paul Krugman
Just over two weeks ago The Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece by Vice President Mike Pence titled “There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave.’” The article was supposed to reassure the nation.
What it provided, instead, was a clear illustration of the delusions and magical thinking that have marked every step of the Trump administration’s response to Covid-19, producing an epic policy disaster.
Put it this way: By now, according to Trump officials and sycophants, we were supposed to be seeing a fading pandemic and a roaring recovery. Instead, we have a fading recovery and a roaring pandemic.
About the pandemic: The Pence article cheerily declared that “cases have stabilized,” with the daily average number of new cases only 20,000. Even that figure, as it happens, was five times the number in the European Union, which has a third more people than America does. Since then, however, new cases have soared, hitting more than 50,000 by some counts on Wednesday.
Indeed, at this point Arizona, with seven million people, is reporting around as many new cases each day as the whole E.U., with 446 million people.
Some Trump supporters are still trying to dismiss the upswing in cases as an illusion created by more testing. But it isn’t. Cases have grown far more than testing has. Hospitalizations have shot up in Arizona and Texas, which are at the leading edge of the new surge; in both states, hospitals are in crisis mode. (Florida, which is probably in the same situation, hasn’t been releasing hospitalization data.)
The one piece of slightly good news is that deaths from the coronavirus are still falling, in part because the new wave of infections is hitting people younger than the first wave did, in part perhaps because doctors have gotten better at treating the disease. But Covid-19 can be debilitating and cause long-term damage, even when it doesn’t kill.
Also, deaths are a lagging indicator. In Arizona, where the jump in cases began about two weeks before the rest of the Sunbelt, deaths are rising.
The thing is, Covid-19’s resurgence was utterly predictable — and predicted. When Donald Trump declared that we would “transition to greatness” — which is to say, rush to reopen the economy despite a still-rampant pandemic — epidemiologists warned that this could set off a new wave of infections. They were right.
And economists warned that while relaxing social distancing would lead to a brief period of job growth, these gains would be short-lived, that premature reopening would be self-defeating even in economic terms. They were also right.
Don’t be fooled by the big jobs number in Thursday’s employment report — a number that still left us down almost 15 million jobs from February. The report was a snapshot of the economy during the “reference period,” basically the second week of June. So it’s telling us what was happening before the Covid-19 surge became apparent.
We don’t have official data for what has happened since then, but a variety of real-time indicators suggest that the recovery has stalled or even gone backward. Indeed, things started falling apart even before states began reversing some of their previous moves to reopen. Fear of infection will do that: Many people will avoid going out whatever their governors may say.
As a result, unemployment, still in double digits, probably won’t get much better for a long time.
Now, there isn’t a one-to-one correspondence between jobs and the spread of the pandemic. If we had all worn masks and avoided stupid policies like reopening bars and resuming large indoor gatherings, we probably could have had substantial job gains without surging infections. But we didn’t, largely because Trump and Republican governors refused to take sensible actions (and in many cases prevented mayors and other local officials from acting sensibly on their own).
Nor can we simply hit the reset button. Activities we could have safely resumed two months ago, when infection rates were low, aren’t safe to continue given today’s much higher Covid-19 prevalence. That is, we’re in worse shape, even economically, than we would have been if Trump and his allies had taken the pandemic seriously early on.
The really frightening aspect about where we are is that Trump and his people don’t seem to have learned anything from their coronavirus debacle. On Wednesday — Wednesday! — Trump insisted, as he has at every stage of the pandemic, that the coronavirus will “sort of just disappear.”
And the Trumpists are crowing about the June employment number, with no apparent awareness that it’s out of date and the situation has probably worsened in recent weeks.
The sad, even terrifying thing is that Trumpian delusions of success will impose a heavy price on the rest of us.
Right now we should be going all-out to bring the Covid-19 surge under control and making sure that Americans keep getting the economic aid they need. In reality, neither of those things is likely to happen. Infections and hospitalizations will soar further, and millions of Americans will lose crucial economic lifelines in a few weeks.
The next four months are going to be very, very ugly.
Summertime & the Livin’ Ain’t Easy…
‘She’s got the gun on me’: Video shows white woman pulling pistol on Black mother, daughter in Michigan
Washington Post via @BostonGlobe – July 2
First, the white woman bumped into Takelia Hill’s teenage daughter. Then, her husband seemed to try to hit the Black Michigan mother with their minivan.
And just moments later, Hill found herself in a suburban Detroit parking lot, staring into the muzzle of a pistol, as the woman aimed her weapon at Hill and yelled for her to move back.
“You f—— jumped behind my car,” the woman said, later shouting, “Back the f— up!”
The startling confrontation, which was partly caught on camera Wednesday afternoon, quickly went viral overnight. As of Thursday afternoon, video of the confrontation had been viewed about 12 million times on Twitter.
“I am deeply disturbed by an incident last night where a woman pointed a cocked gun at another woman during an argument. This behavior is unacceptable,” Oakland County Executive David Coulter said in a statement Thursday. …
Oakland County prosecutor Jessica Cooper charged the woman who drew the gun and the man who drove the van with one count each of felonious assault, which is punishable by up to 4 years imprisonment upon conviction.
The married couple holds Michigan concealed pistol licenses. Both the man and woman were armed. The sheriff said he did not know whether the man also pointed his handgun.
For some viewers, the scene may offer a particularly tedious sense of deja vu: Just days earlier, a white couple in St. Louis gained national attention after they brandished their weapons at a group of protesters, most of whom were Black and were walking down the couple’s private street. …
Fred:
White folks feel threatened when Black people leave Detroit. No public transportation going into or out of Detroit.
July 3, 2020
Profit Shares Soared After the Great Recession: News You Can’t Get at the New York Times
By Dean Baker
Apparently Steven Rattner, a regular columnist at the New York Times, is unable to get government data on corporate profits. That is what readers must conclude from his column * on the strength of the stock market in spite of a plunging economy. While Rattner rightly points to the fact that interest rates on bonds are extremely low, which makes stocks seem like an attractive alternative, he never once mentions the likely shift from wages to profits that we can expect in a weak labor market.
The bulk ** of the widely touted shift from wages to profits occurred in the weak labor market following the Great Recession. (There was also a shift in the housing bubble years, but this was largely fake profits as banks and other financial institutions booked large profits on loans that subsequently went bad. This would be like recorded profits on fictitious sales.) Workers were regaining their share in the tight labor market of the last five years.
With the coronavirus recession likely to lead to a weak labor market for years to come, especially if the Republicans and deficit hawks can dictate policy, the profit share is likely to rise back to post-Great Recession peaks. This would mean that profits will soar, even if the economy is very weak.
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/opinion/stock-market.html
** https://www.cepr.net/some-good-news-in-coronavirus-times-a-rise-in-the-labor-share-of-national-income/
March 18, 2020
Some Good News in Coronavirus Times: A Rise in the Labor Share of National Income
By DEAN BAKER
I would have blogged on this last week if not for the small distraction of a pandemic. Anyhow, we now have full year data on profits and income, and it turns out there was an increase in the labor share of roughly 0.7 percentage points in 2019. That took us to 64.2 percent of national income. That is still down from 66.2 percent in 2000 and 66.9 percent in 1979, before the period of upward redistribution began, but it is up from a low of 61.7 percent in 2014.
[Graph]
This means that we were seeing workers gain back some of the income share that they lost in the Great Recession, and to a lesser extent before that. Of course, it would have taken several more years to get back to the former labor shares. If we assume a gain of 0.7 pp a year, we could have back to the 2000 share in another three years or the 1979 share in four years.
However, with the economic collapse we are now seeing, all bets on wage and profit shares are off. It is very hard to know how the pie will be divided up when this is over, clearly the policies we pursue now will make a big difference.
It is worth noting that the shift from wages to profits has not been the major cause of wage stagnation for the typical worker over the last four decades. If we were back at the 1979 wage share, and distribution of wages was unchanged, the pay of the median worker would be 4.2 percent higher. That is not trivial, but that is only around 10 percent of the gap between productivity growth and wage growth over this period. Most of the upward redistribution went to CEOs, Wall Street types, and other high end workers.
Arne:
I would like my daughter to know that I am proud that she has an essential job. I would like her to understand that she also has a responsibility to not carry risk back to her coworker. Part of that is keeping her contacts simple.
[ Compelling thoughts. ]
The point of contact tracing is that with continual monitoring and testing, new coronavirus cases can be caught and isolated then contacts of those cases can be traced. The more new cases, the more difficult the tracing problem. Also, the less monitoring and testing done the more likely there will be a significant increase in new cases in an area before the new cases are known about.
Tracing the contacts of new cases means they must be spotted quickly. I do not think this is happening to any meaningful degree through the country.
July 3, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,864,346)
Deaths ( 131,818)
Contact tracing would seem to be an unreasonably complex plan at this point.
Jonathan Cheng @JChengWSJ
Economic activity is gathering momentum in China, the latest sign that Beijing’s uncompromising approach to tackling the coronavirus is starting to pay dividends even as the U.S. shuts down swaths of its economy in a struggle to contain the virus.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-economy-regains-strength-after-strict-coronavirus-measures-11593773630
China’s Economy Regains Strength After Strict Coronavirus Measures
Data suggest that Beijing’s firm handling of pandemic has restored enough confidence to allow recovery to gather momentum
Economic activity is gathering momentum in China, a raft of survey data showed this week, the latest sign that Beijing’s uncompromising approach to tackling the coronavirus pandemic is starting to pay dividends even as the U.S. shuts down swaths of its economy in a struggle to contain the virus.
7:11 AM · Jul 3, 2020
A reason to look to the economic performance of China now, is that there has been a quiet but influence Western argument over how much to expressly limit economic activity in dealing with the coronavirus. Will the Swedish approach of generally leaving the economy to function “normally” as the virus spread have actually bolstered the economy? What of the British approach, which was not much different than that of Sweden?
https://twitter.com/Jingjing_Li/status/1278989871034462208
Jingjing Li @Jingjing_Li
Since the 2nd wave of #COVID19 emerged in mid June, #Beijing has tested over 10 million ppl in three weeks, and found 331 confirmed cases. Besides patients and close contacts, workers in food industry, salons, delivery guys, etc, all tested. That’s how you control an outbreak.
5:52 AM · Jul 3, 2020
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-03/Beijing-reports-two-new-COVID-19-cases-ROG0lGFTqw/index.html
July 3, 2020
Beijing reports 2 new COVID-19 cases
Two new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases were reported in Beijing on Thursday, raising the total infections in the city to 331 since June 11, when the first case from the Xinfadi market cluster was detected, the Beijing Health Commission said on Friday.
The new cases were reported in Beijing’s Fengtai District, where Xinfadi market is located.
Three patients from the local cluster infections were discharged from the hospital on Thursday, while the other 324 continue to be hospitalized.
[ https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-03/Beijing-reports-two-new-COVID-19-cases-ROG0lGFTqw/img/b68356363a274cdb88a59d7893e4ae12/b68356363a274cdb88a59d7893e4ae12.jpeg ]
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-5-new-COVID-19-cases-2-of-them-in-Beijing–RODU3krZQI/index.html
July 3, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 5 new COVID-19 cases, no new deaths
A total of 5 new COVID-19 cases were reported on the Chinese mainland on Thursday, 3 from overseas, and 2 local transmissions in Beijing. On Friday, the Chinese health authorities also added that there were no new deaths.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 83,542, and the cumulative death toll at 4,634 with 97 asymptomatic patients under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-5-new-COVID-19-cases-2-of-them-in-Beijing–RODU3krZQI/img/b68356363a274cdb88a59d7893e4ae12/b68356363a274cdb88a59d7893e4ae12.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-5-new-COVID-19-cases-2-of-them-in-Beijing–RODU3krZQI/img/79a94c87426145c6957b105bce0cb60a/79a94c87426145c6957b105bce0cb60a.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-03/Chinese-mainland-reports-5-new-COVID-19-cases-2-of-them-in-Beijing–RODU3krZQI/img/fc7c62969b6f425ea0c594adb268c9b5/fc7c62969b6f425ea0c594adb268c9b5.jpeg
US
Cases ( 2,878,415)
Deaths ( 131,969)
India
Cases ( 649,889)
Deaths ( 18,669)
UK
Cases ( 284,276)
Deaths ( 44,131)
Mexico
Cases ( 238,511)
Deaths ( 29,189)
Germany
Cases ( 197,000)
Deaths ( 9,073)
If those people who were not afraid of getting sick because they “know” it will not kill them, could still be brought onboard to the idea that they would need to provide names of all their contacts, they might decide that a party with 40 people is too much. Too big of an ‘if’, but I don’t think it is a message that our leaders have tried.
Covid does not have to kill you, it could maim you instead with a crippling disorder. Everyone thinks this a death or home free disease. Its not and there are other consequences.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/rockland-coronavirus-party.html
July 1, 2020
Party Guests Wouldn’t Talk After 9 Tested Positive. Then Subpoenas Came.
Rushing to contain a coronavirus cluster tied to a big party in a New York City suburb, officials turned to an unusual legal strategy.
By Ed Shanahan
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/health/coronavirus-recovery-survivors.html
July 1, 2020
Here’s What Recovery From Covid-19 Looks Like for Many Survivors
Continuing shortness of breath, muscle weakness, flashbacks, mental fogginess and other symptoms may plague patients for a long time.
By Pam Belluck
July 3, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,887,983)
Deaths ( 132,068)
Here’s another infected person refusing to help with tracing.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion/readers-respond/bs-ed-rr-reopen-maryland-leader-letter-20200701-f2m7pxcxrfdrnhipphehdlafh4-story.html
Part of the message about opening up needs to be that for those who want to take the risk of going to bars or restaurants; some of you may get infected and you need to be prepared to tell the health care professionals who will be there to help you who you came in contact with.
This should apply to my neighbors across the street who are having a 4th of July party as I write this.
Arne:
Welcome to the “Best Loved Club” where you identify the willful ignorant actions of your neighbors. Thank goodness we have many feet of distance between our neighbors and us. One next door has pool parties for the neighborhood kids and their parents. She (divorced) has others to her home which is really none of my business . . . I do not know how one social distances for this. The same across the street. Scary times.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/03/business/economy/europe-us-jobless-coronavirus.html
July 3, 2020
European Workers Draw Paychecks. American Workers Scrounge for Food.
In the pandemic, the United States has relied on expanded unemployment benefits, while European governments have subsidized wages, avoiding a surge in joblessness.
By Peter S. Goodman, Patricia Cohen and Rachel Chaundler
Fauci praises Mass. response to coronavirus as state’s key indicators continue downward trend>
AP via @BostonGlobe – July 3
The nation’s top infectious disease specialist praised Massachusetts’ response to the coronavirus pandemic this week, as key indicators for the state continued to tick downward while dozens of other states see infections climbing.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also pointed to tighter lockdowns in Europe leading infection rates there to drop while US numbers continue to climb, as he appeared Thursday afternoon in a video interview with Harvard Business Review’s Joshua Macht.
Asked about the virus’s slowing spread in Massachusetts and some other states hit hard early in the pandemic, Fauci cautioned that the numbers would inevitably move upward as the state continues to reopen businesses.
“You are going to see infections as we try to open up and go from one phase to another,” Fauci said. “By the way, Massachusetts has done a really, really good job. They have. New York City, even though they got hit really badly, did a really good job of getting it down.”
On Monday, Massachusetts is set to move to Phase 3 of its reopening, which includes casinos, museums, and fitness centers, though Boston will move into Phase 3 on July 13.
“It’s critical that we continue to be smart about how we do this,” Governor Charlie Baker said Thursday. “We’d hate to have to move backwards.”
Fauci said tighter restrictions on movement have proved to be successful in slowing the virus’s spread.
“When the European Union shut down … about 95 or more percent of the [union] truly locked down,” Fauci said. “When we were in our lockdown, about 50 percent of the country was in lockdown.” …
Mass. reports zero new coronavirus deaths for the first time in months
via @BostonGlobe – June 30
For the first time in months, state officials on Tuesday reported zero new deaths in Massachusetts due to the deadly coronavirus pandemic, an encouraging sign that stood in stark contrast with other states nationwide that have seen recent spikes in their numbers.
The Department of Public Health also said it was decreasing the official total of coronavirus deaths in the state due to “ongoing data cleaning which identifies and removes duplicate reports.” On Monday, the running tally of confirmed and probable deaths was 8,095; that number dropped to 8,054 on Tuesday. …
(Alas, subsequently…)
Mass. reports 17 new COVID-19 deaths, 290 new cases
via @BostonDotCom – July 3
July 4, 2020
On this day in 1054: How China Discovered the Crab Nebula- The Song’s Era of Science
By Chollima Report
The Crab Nebula is undoubtedly one of the visual wonders of the known universe. Created from a spectacular arrangement of ionized helium and dust, the Nebula represents the remnants of a supernova star which at some point in the distant past exploded. Formally identified in 1731, the arrangement is visible from Earth via the use of binoculars or a telescope.
However, few know the full story as to how this interstellar icon was first in fact discovered by China, over 600 years before the revival of Western Astronomy in the European Renaissance. The destruction and implosion of the supernova which created the nebula was in fact observed by Chinese astronomers, who in 1054 described the phenomenon as a “guest star” (客星), who observed the appearance of a bright star in the sky that was previously not present.
China in the 11th century was ruled by the Song Dynasty, which whilst it competed with rival kingdoms including the Liao and the Western Xia, and later the Jin, was nonetheless one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world. It would meet its end against the Mongol Empire but this does not negate its extraordinary achievements in innovation.
The Song oversaw the invention of the compass, printed paper money, gunpowder and hydraulic engineering whilst making incredible advances in botany, zoology, geology, mineralogy, mechanics, magnetics, meteorology, horology, pharmaceutical medicine, archaeology, mathematics, cartography, optics and art, all of which would shape the course of the nation’s history into the long term future.
Astronomy was but one amongst many of these achievements. During the era by which the Crab Nebula was discovered in its preliminary supernova explosion, the Song heralded a famous scientist and statesman known as Shen Kuo, who would work with another astronomer called Wei Pu. Shen led the dynasty’s bureau of astronomy and discovered the magnetic concept of the “true north”- and with Wei aimed to focus on the orbital speeds and and positions of the planets.
On this background, it is hardly surprising that astronomers in China made breakthroughs on matters of celestial bodies which pre-dated the achievements of European countries by centuries. As China mapped the stars, the Kingdom of England had not even undergone the Battle of Hastings and the basic record keeping of the Domesday Book. As Shen and Wei sought to map out the Cosmos, the west would believe the universe revolved around the Earth for another 600 years.
Fred Dobbs:
Mass. reports zero new coronavirus deaths for the first time in months
via @BostonGlobe – June 30
Mass. reports 17 new COVID-19 deaths, 290 new cases
via @BostonDotCom – July 3
[ This is quite saddening. ]
MA is #7 in cases, #4 in death rates
(7.43%). A lower rate than MI, NJ,
PA; somewhat higher than NY
Data from Wikipedia).
State …………… Cases Deaths Rate
Michigan …………… 71,678 6,212 8.67%
New Jersey ……….. 172,356 13,181 7.65%
Pennsylvania ……. 88,741 6,746 7.60%
Massachusetts …… 109,628 8,149 7.43%
New York …………… 395,872 24,885 6.29%
Perhaps interesting, on that list, are
states with more cases but fewer deaths:
California … 248,235 6,263 2.52%
Florida ……..190,052 3,702 1.95%
Texas ……… 183,532 2,575 1.40%
The point about Massachusetts, which handled the spread of coronavirus cases poorly early on but well enough after to have brought the spread of infection under control, is that there is likely again a community infection that is spreading in the state * but the large-scale testing and quarantine or isolation that is necessary to control this spread does not appear to be taking place.
* That is what 290 new confirmed coronavirus cases on July 3 indicates.
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,918,050)
Deaths ( 132,209)
(Is 290 a sizeable increase, rather than a random spike?
Does it have to do with the re-opening under way? Hmmm.)
Phase 3 starts Monday…
The latest data comes the day Gov. Charlie Baker announced that the state will be moving on to Phase 3 of its reopening plan beginning on Monday, July 6.
Casinos, gyms and museums can open as early as Monday in Massachusetts as part of Phase 3 of the plan. Like Phase 2, Phase 3 will proceed in two parts, Baker said on Thursday during his daily press briefing.
“This phase will last significantly longer than the other phases so that we can closely monitor the impact to our public health data,” he said.
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
UK
Cases ( 284,900)
Deaths ( 44,198)
[ Chris Dillow wrote today * of the United Kingdom government claiming the use of evidence-based policy. I however am troubled. Would evidence-based policy explain this disastrous response to the coronavirus or the intolerable 15.5% deaths to confirmed cases ratio?
I have no interest in blaming the government for the response so far, just in understanding what happened.
* https://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2020/07/limits-of-evidence-based-policy.html ]
(I saw the other day that guvmint surplus bunkers are
available. But there is always the Appeal of the Open Road…).
The #Vanlife Business Is Booming
NY Times – July 3
… Rohan Dixit, the founder of a medical device start-up called Lief, has decided to move full time — or close to it — into a van, as soon as his order from the van conversion company Ready Set Van comes this fall.
“Rent is really expensive, and I really like being out in nature, and now with coronavirus it’s like all in-person meetings are canceled,” said Mr. Dixit, 34, who lives in Berkeley, Calif. “I don’t really need to be in the Bay Area.” He said his plan was to “go between the mountains and the ocean and anywhere there’s a cell signal.”
Benjamin Fraser, who founded Ready Set Van in March, said he was “blown away by how deep the vanlife dream has permeated culture, and it made me realize we’re actually selling a lifestyle, a whole new way of living.”
He gets about 20 inquiries a day for vans. People have offered to throw in an extra $10,000 to cut in line, which he does not allow. He is soon moving the business into a 15,000-square-foot facility near Lambertville, N.J.
Before vans, he was into cryptocurrency trading, and the van boom times remind him of that heyday, he said. He worries it could disappear just as quickly. “Is it just going to evaporate the moment we have a vaccine?” Mr. Fraser said. …
Fred Dobbs:
Is 290 a sizable increase, rather than a random spike?
[ Beijing immediately treated several related infections found on June 11, after weeks of no community infection, as sizable and dangerous and began a large-scale test and isolation program that continues though this new infection spread appears controlled. ]
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-04/Beijing-reports-one-new-COVID-19-case-RQlihTzdfO/index.html
July 4, 2020
Beijing reports 1 new COVID-19 case
One new locally transmitted COVID-19 case was reported in Beijing on Friday, raising the total infections in the city to 332 since June 11, when the first case from the Xinfadi market cluster was detected, the Beijing Health Commission said on Saturday.
The new case emerged in Beijing’s Fengtai District.
On Friday, two patients from the local cluster infections were discharged, taking the total number of recoveries to 9.
[ https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-04/Beijing-reports-one-new-COVID-19-case-RQlihTzdfO/img/2d194f23542643f2bcdabf3ceef5a764/2d194f23542643f2bcdabf3ceef5a764.jpeg ]
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
Took a long bike ride by the Delaware. Lovely. But all along and on the river people were having Covid parties – crowded, no masks. Scary.
12:47 PM · Jul 4, 2020
Between June 11 and July 3, after finding a community cluster of coronavirus cases in Beijing, there were over 10 million tests administered:
https://twitter.com/Jingjing_Li/status/1278989871034462208
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,925,627)
Deaths ( 132,229)
Consider Israel as Massachusetts. Israel with help from China handled the spread of the coronavirus well, readying quarantine or isolation facilities and protecting medics and gaining control of the virus fairly readily. Israel however has long had a general medical testing problem and when a new cluster of coronavirus cases was found Israel was unable to test rapidly and now Israel has a sharply increasing number of new coronavirus cases.
As cases spike in California, a warning for Massachusetts
via @BostonGlobe – July 4
A state that was once considered a road map for fighting COVID-19 now looks more like a warning sign.
Just one month ago, California seemed to have the coronavirus pandemic under control. Its cities were among the first in the country to implement strict lockdowns, and the state escaped the worst of COVID-19 in the spring. But in recent weeks, a dramatic surge in cases has torn through the state, from the beaches of San Diego to the streets of San Francisco.
For other states that now seem to have their outbreaks under control — Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey among them — California’s seeming reversal of fortune raises a troubling question: Is success sure to be fleeting?
As Massachusetts proceeds with its reopening plan, embarking on Phase 3 beginning Monday, scientists say California’s turn for the worse holds crucial lessons for states that seem to have tamped down major outbreaks. Politicians and the public alike cannot afford to race back to normalcy, they say, rushing reopening plans and abandoning the strategies that have proven effective, including masks and social distancing. Because thus far, no victory has proven definitive.
“People should be very impressed with the job that we’ve done and yet be very cautious in their own behavior given what’s happening nationally,” said Dr. Sarah Fortune, a physician and chairwoman of the department of immunology and infectious diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
Phase 3 “does carry more risk, but that’s not insurmountable given just careful attention to risk mitigation,” Fortune said. “Our state can be more open, and we can keep the virus in check. We just have to be very careful.”
But to see what could happen if Massachusetts is not careful, look west.
In late spring, California seemed to be on track to contain the virus. Despite having more than five times the population of Massachusetts, the Golden State entered June with about the same number of COVID-19 cases and fewer deaths.
On June 1, Massachusetts reported 100,805 total COVID-19 cases and 7,035 deaths. California counted 113,006 cases and 4,251 deaths. Throughout the spring, the number of deaths each day in Los Angeles County, which has a larger population than Massachusetts, never reached above the mid-50s. Meanwhile, the daily death count in Massachusetts neared 200 in late April, the worst point of the outbreak here.
Now, the two states’ fortunes seem to have reversed. As Massachusetts sees a steady decline in infections and deaths, California is facing a crisis. Total infections have almost doubled in one month, and hospitals in several parts of the state, Los Angeles included, are rapidly approaching capacity.
Los Angeles County recorded 2,903 new cases on Monday, its highest count yet. The county is now the center of the state’s outbreak, accounting for nearly half of all confirmed cases. California now surpasses every state except New York for its number of reported COVID-19 infections.
Disease experts say California’s devastating turn for the worse should signal to all states that reopening plans and the public’s resumption of normal activities must proceed cautiously and deliberately, even if the pandemic seems to be in retreat.
“I think virtually everyone in every jurisdiction needs to be very concerned. Because this virus is absolutely relentless,” said Dr. Paul Simon, a physician and chief science officer with the County of Los Angeles Department of Public Health. …
Rate of coronavirus deaths at Mass. long-term care facilities among highest in the nation
via @BostonGlobe – May 2
The novel coronavirus’s disproportionate impact on long-term care facilities in Massachusetts continued to grow this week, accounting now for nearly 60 percent of all state deaths, one of the highest publicly reported rates in the country.
A half dozen other states — Rhode Island, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Oregon, West Virginia, and Maine, have also reported more than half of all their COVID-19 deaths from patients at long-term care facilities, according to data collected by the Kaiser Family Foundation. Rhode Island appears to have the highest rate in the nation, at about 71 percent, followed by Massachusetts.
Details on infections and deaths within the nation’s nursing homes are spotty — the foundation says only 30 states are publicly reporting data about fatalities in long-term care facilities, angering families and advocates, and making the full impact of the virus’s toll difficult to gauge.
But one thing is for sure: long-term care facilities in Massachusetts have borne the brunt of the deadly disease like few other places, a worrisome trend for the 41,000 people living in nursing and rest homes here. …
At least 67 percent of the state’s 476 long-term care facilities have reported one case of infection, according to state data.
Since April 17, coronavirus deaths in long-term care facilities have represented at least half of all deaths in the state and the trend appears to show no signs of abating. …
Nationally, Massachusetts has the 10th highest nursing home population in the country, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. New York and California have the largest nursing home populations with just over 101,000 patients each. …
Possibly I am not smart enough to understand the nuances, but as far as I can tell the record of Massachusetts in protecting residents against the spread of the coronavirus has been awful:
July 4, 2020
Coronavirus
Massachusetts
Cases ( 109,838)
Deaths ( 8,172)
Notice that Massachusetts has shielded nursing home owners against legal liability:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/13/nyregion/nursing-homes-coronavirus-new-york.html
May 13, 2020
Buried in N.Y. Budget: Legal Shield for Nursing Homes Rife With Virus
In New York, 5,300 nursing home residents have died of Covid-19. The nursing home lobby pressed for a provision that makes it hard for their families to sue.
By Amy Julia Harris, Kim Barker and Jesse McKinley
Advocates for nursing home residents said there were three longstanding safeguards against bad homes: family members who frequently visit; regular inspections by government regulators; and, as a last resort, lawsuits that can hold negligent homes accountable. But families can no longer visit. Regulators have largely stopped inspecting.
“All of the systems there to protect people are gone,” said Toby Edelman, a senior policy attorney at the Center for Medicare Advocacy. “To me, the combination — rules are waived, protections are waived, nobody is going in to check. And now immunity? That is a lethal combination.”
New Jersey, Massachusetts, North Carolina, Utah and Wisconsin have also passed new measures to shield health care facilities, including nursing homes, from liability.
Governors in at least nine other states — Arizona, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, Mississippi, Rhode Island and Vermont — issued executive orders shielding health care facilities from most lawsuits related to their response to the pandemic.
Nursing homes are pressing for legal protections in other states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and California…
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-1-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html
July 4, 2020
239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne
The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.
By Apoorva Mandavilli
Thinking on about the spread of the coronavirus in nursing homes where residents are especially vulnerable. What is disturbing is that when the special vulnerable of nursing home residents was understood early on the precautions taken to protect residents and staff were remarkably ineffective. I find no excusing the poor protection of nursing home residents and staff, but the excuse is almost always implied in the accounts of the spread of the coronavirus.
Paul Krugman @paulkrugman
What strikes me about Trump right now is not the vileness and hatred — we knew all that — but the naked display of panic, his obvious awareness that he can’t rise to this moment 1/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/us/politics/trump-mt-rushmore.html
At Mt. Rushmore and the White House, Trump Updates ‘American Carnage’ Message for 2020
His ominous remarks were a reflection of his political standing: trailing in the polls, lacking a booming economy or a positive message to campaign on, and leaning on culture wars to buoy his loyalists.
6:40 AM · Jul 5, 2020
More than three years into his term, Trump confronted his first real crises — Covid-19 and a remarkable surge of national awareness over racism. Another president might have sought to deal with these crises. Trump didn’t even try 2/
He could have listened to experts and done what almost every Western leader did — try to contain the pandemic. Instead, he’s just dug deeper and deeper into denial. He still won’t wear a mask! 3/
Invictus @TBPInvictus
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcBi7lZXQAIo9So?format=jpg&name=large
And he’s shown remarkable persistence in his belief that racism will work for him if only he turns the volume even higher, despite the evidence of polls 4/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/us/politics/trump-mt-rushmore.html
Central to Mr. Trump’s approach, however, is a belief he and some of his advisers share that voters are misleading pollsters about their support for the nationwide protests, several allies said. As he has sought to present himself as the candidate of law and order, Mr. Trump has rejected suggestions from some aides who have urged him to do more to address racism in America, in the aftermath of the killing of George Floyd in the custody of police officers in Minneapolis.
Instead, he has intensified his criticism of the Black Lives Matter movement. In a post last week on Twitter, he called the words Black Lives Matter a “symbol of hate” as he criticized plans by the mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, to paint the phrase on Fifth Avenue outside Trump Tower.
It all amounts to a kind of toxic incompetence: he can’t do his job, he knows he can’t do it, but he’ll destroy the country rather than admit his own inadequacy. I wonder how much damage he’ll do if he loses, but is still in the White House for 10 weeks? 5/
Published July 5:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/opinion/inequality-america-paul-krugman.html
June 1, 2020
Why Do the Rich Have So Much Power?
Americans may be equal, but some are more equal than others.
By Paul Krugman
America is, in principle, a democracy, in which every vote counts the same. It’s also a nation in which income inequality has soared, a development that hurts many more people than it helps. So if you didn’t know better, you might have expected to see a political backlash: demands for higher taxes on the rich, more spending on the working class and higher wages.
In reality, however, policy has mostly gone the other way. Tax rates on corporations and high incomes have gone down, unions have been crushed, the minimum wage, adjusted for inflation, is lower than it was in the 1960s. How is that possible?
The answer is that huge disparities in income and wealth translate into comparable disparities in political influence. To see how this works, let’s look at a fairly recent example: the budgetary Grand Bargain that almost happened in 2011.
At the time, Washington was firmly in the grip of deficit fever. Even though the federal government was able to borrow at historically low interest rates, everyone who mattered seemed to be saying that the budget deficit was the most important issue facing America and that it was essential to rein in spending on Social Security and Medicare.
So the Obama administration offered congressional Republicans a deal: cuts in Social Security and Medicare in return for slightly higher taxes on the wealthy. The deal foundered only because the party refused to accept even a small tax increase.
The question is, who wanted such a deal? Not the American public.
Voters in general weren’t all that worried about budget deficits. While most Americans believed that the deficit should be reduced — they always do — a CBS poll in early 2011 found only 6 percent of the public named the deficit as the most important issue, compared with 51 percent citing the economy and jobs.
Both the Obama administration and Republicans were staking out positions that flew in the face of public desires. A large majority has consistently wanted to see Social Security benefits expanded, not cut. A comparably large majority has consistently said that upper-income Americans pay too little, not too much, in taxes.
So whose interests were actually reflected in the 2011 budget fight? The wealthy.
A groundbreaking study of rich Americans’ policy preferences in 2011 found that the wealthy, unlike voters in general, did prioritize deficit reduction over everything else. They also, in stark contrast with the general public, favored cuts in Social Security and health spending.
And while a few high-profile billionaires like Warren Buffett have called for higher taxes on people like themselves, the reality is that most billionaires are obsessed with cutting taxes, like the estate tax, that only the rich pay.
In other words, in 2011 a Democratic administration went all-in on behalf of a policy concern that only the rich gave priority and failed to reach a deal only because Republicans didn’t want the rich to bear any burden at all.
Massachusetts
Covid-19 Cases ( 109,838)
Covid-19 Deaths ( 8,172)
(Over 60% of Covid-19 deaths in MA have been in nursing homes.)(/b>
(NY & CA are tied for the most nursing home residents.
MA is tied with IN, MI, MO at #10.)
Total Number of Residents in Certified Nursing Facilities
A local public policy research group is urging the state to do more in combatting COVID-19 in nursing homes
via @BostonDotCom – July 1
“COVID has wiped out 10 percent of Massachusetts’ nursing home population,” Barbara Anthony, a senior health care fellow at the Pioneer Institute, said in a statement. “The state needs to take affirmative steps to control infection and prepare nursing homes for the duration of the pandemic and beyond,” …
As of Tuesday, the state Department of Public Health had reported 23,453 total probable or confirmed COVID-19 cases in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, with 5,106 deaths reported in those centers alone. At least one case has been reported in 369 facilities. …
Outlook worsens in parts of the U.S. as July begins with a crush of cases.
July in America is off to a miserable start.
Over the month’s first five days, the United States reported its three largest daily case totals. Fourteen states recorded single-day highs. In all, more than 250,000 new cases were announced nationwide, the equivalent of every person in Reno catching the virus in less than a week.
“The situation is that we are experiencing rampant community spread,” said Clay Jenkins, the top elected official in Dallas County, Texas, where more than 2,000 new cases were announced over the weekend. Mr. Jenkins pleaded with residents to “move from selfishness to sacrifice” and wear a mask in public.
Across much of the country, the outlook was worsening quickly.
On Sunday, Texas and Florida both surpassed 200,000 total cases. In Mississippi, where nearly every county has reported an uptick in cases, the speaker of the State House of Representatives was among several lawmakers to test positive. And in Starr County, Texas, along the Mexican border, cases were being identified by the hundreds and hospitals were running out of room.
“The local and valley hospitals are at full capacity and have no more beds available,” Eloy Vera, the top official in Starr County, said in a Facebook post. “I urge all of our residents to please shelter-in-place, wear face coverings, practice social distancing and AVOID GATHERINGS.”
Meanwhile, new case clusters emerged as people resumed their pre-pandemic routines. At least 16 infections were linked to a church in San Antonio. Ninety-five people tested positive at a housing facility for farmworkers in Oxnard, Calif. In Missouri, a summer camp shut down after more than 40 people, including campers and employees, tested positive. …