by Joseph Joyce (lifted from Capital Ebbs and Flows) Partners, Not Debtors: The External Liabilities of Emerging Market Economies My paper, “Partners, Not Debtors: The External Liabilities of Emerging Market Economies,” has been published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Here is the abstract: This paper investigates the change in […]
March jobs report: good nowcast, concerning forecast HEADLINES: +196,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8% U6 underemployment rate unchanged at 7.3% Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am highlighting these because many leading indicators overall strongly suggest that an employment slowdown is coming. The following more leading numbers in […]
March news good so far; the Fed has plenty of scope to cut rates While we are waiting for tomorrow’s jobs report, let’s step back for a moment and look at where we are in the big picture of the economic cycle. So far, March data is running pretty positive. In addition to the decent […]
Watch for temp jobs weakness in Friday’s employment report Yesterday I looked at manufacturing jobs, and goods-producing jobs generally, as two what to look for in Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s follow up with temporary jobs, an acknowledged leading indicator for jobs as a whole. As I wrote about a couple of months ago, the […]
March 27: TEGUCIGALPA (Reuters) – The United States said on Wednesday it had reached an agreement with three Central American countries to carry out joint police operations in the region, as the Trump administration seeks to stem the flow of migrants across its southern border. The governments of Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and the United […]
William S. Lind’s cultural Marxism conspiracy theory boils down to the claim that in his essay, “Repressive Tolerance,” Herbert Marcuse “called for tolerance for all ideas and viewpoints coming from the left and intolerance of all ideas and viewpoints coming from the right” and that college administrators and professors have put Marcuse’s proposal into practice […]
run75441: I have been fortunate to run across incredibly intelligent people here and other places who continue to impress me with their command on particular topics. Esmensetoo has an excellent knowledge of healthcare and healthcare insurance and how it has evolved. I was not expecting quite this much. It does cover all of the bases […]
This scares me I am not newly frightened by the proof that the POTUS is demented (that’s bad but it’s not news). I’m terrrified that the google adserver could tell that an ad about the warning signs of dementia was content-appropriate whenever there is a post about Trump and wind. I know that google has […]
Manufacturing slowdown apparent, but no contraction With yesterday’s ISM report for manufacturing in March, let’s take an updated look at this sector, with a particular emphasis on what to look for in this Friday’s jobs report. The ISM manufacturing index, and its more leading new orders sub-index, both continued positive in March, with the former […]