I wrote last summer that the Dow would not rise much above 17,300 and then eventually drop from that level into a recession. We see markets dropping now, but are they dropping into a recession or a resetion? What is a resetion? That is when the markets “reset”. Stock values have been high so at […]

[T]there are serious questions about how we’re going to pay for what we want to see our country do. And, I’m the only candidate standing here tonight who has said I will not raise taxes on the middle class. I want to raise incomes, not taxes, and I’m going to do everything I can to […]

FOLLOW-UP TO: The critical point that Paul Waldman highlights, perhaps unwittingly, about the healthcare debate between Clinton and Sanders I exchanged the following comments with reader Lyle in the Comments thread to my post titled “The critical point that Paul Waldman highlights, perhaps unwittingly, about the healthcare debate between Clinton and Sanders”: Lyle /January 18, […]

Back when I was in college, a professor in one of the science courses I took in order to fulfill the Liberal Arts Science requirement made the point—maybe specifically in refutation of Creationists, although I don’t remember—that it is scientists, not those who contest and try to interfere with scientific discoveries, who will ultimately prove […]

Hillary Clinton had a clear strategy going into Sunday night’s fourth Democratic presidential debate: Hug President Obama — at all costs. “We have the Affordable Care Act,” Clinton said. “That is one of the greatest accomplishments of President Obama, of the Democratic Party, and of our country.” “I’m going to defend Dodd-Frank and I’m going to […]

Second, single-payer would require a lot of additional tax revenue — and we would be talking about taxes on the middle class, not just the wealthy. It’s true that higher taxes would be offset by a sharp reduction or even elimination of private insurance premiums, but it would be difficult to make that case to […]

What I do not see on AB is Bernie’s Plan. Take a moment and read what his plan is before you comment. If you read the plan, you will see Bernie subsidizes the expansion of single payer based on taxes on all households, separate taxes on the rich in income and also capital, the elimination […]

Bernie Sanders has proposed a federal national health insurance system which will provide no-deductible no copay insurance to all US legal residents. Needless to say, this will be expensive. Amazingly, Sanders focused on what taxes he proposes be increased to pay for the program. Kevin Drum is very favorably impressed by the (relatively) honest budgeting […]

I am fairly sure it is a coincidence, but current US GDP is not disappointingly low compared to an almost incredibly crude forecast based on data from before 1990. This graph (which you have to click more to see) shows the natural log of US real GDP and a quadratic trend estimated using data from […]