I knew what was going to happen on Monday three days ago. My argumentation was solid and based on data. Even data-based. But now I don’t. At all. Because ‘reasons’. But I am sure all you do and will fill me in while we wait for actual results about 26 hours from right now. Let […]

This post will build upon my previous post with the Cobra equation. In that post, I gave a model showing that the Fed is completely behind the curve of the business cycle. The Fed should not be raising rates at this point in the business cycle. When to Normalize in Theory In the model, aggregate […]

Maybe a blow up doll behind the empty podium representing Trump? Or maybe the same as Clint Eastwood, they should all address the empty podium and tell it what they think of Trump. Any other ideas?

Tim Duy, who is a cool economist, points out a difference between the labor market and output GDP… Labor market improving while GDP is slowing. He describes this difference for the Fed. “Now they have slow GDP growth and fast employment growth. That will make brains explode on Constitution Ave.” Yet, Brains need not explode. […]

What fresh hell/word salad is this?!! Bear with me a second and then treat this as a political open thread. Trump and Cruz are each in their ways walking talking self contradictory oxymorons. Each purports to be the outsider speaking for the common man yet each came straight to the top through insider channels. Trump […]

I have been saying for more than two years that the Fed should have raised the Fed rate earlier. Now it is too late because the economy is over the top of the business cycle… or as I would say, against the effective demand limit. They should have raised the Fed rate when effective demand […]

I’m not sure if AngryBear readers noticed, but Italy is suffering a slow motion banking crisis– we are so backward that we are getting to 2008 in 2016. This post is my attempt to translate and summarize this story in Italy’s leading paper La Repubblica and an angry blog post by Luca Fantuzzi update: in […]

It is still early hours in the confrontation between the Malheur Wildlife Refuge occupiers and the ‘jack booted thugs’ but one thing has always been clear. When it comes to a armed confrontation between ‘patriots’ and the forces of government the ‘Patriotic Wolverines’ will lose. Until or unless they subvert the military and the federal […]