Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Where we are

So Trump announced yuuge “permanent” tariffs and the stock market indices all tanked. Then Trump backpedaled on all the big tariffs except on China. Why the Trump flip-flop? Here’s Josh Marshall over at TPM: “Every sign is that it was not about the equities markets but rather the bond market, where the demand for U.S. […]

Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds

“Tesla wins, Detroit bleeds,” Bernstein analysts led by Daniel Roeska declared Thursday. “Tesla is the clear structural winner…. For everyone else, this is a margin reset and real drag on near-term earnings power,” Roeska continued.” The only imported part for Teslas appears to be a wire harness made in Mexico. That’s expected to add less […]

Versatility of conviction

The tariffs were always about extortion, soliciting bribes. They were never about helping the economy, balancing the budget, trade deficits or reducing taxes. “After multiple White House aides insisted that the new tariffs were not a negotiation, Trump said he would be open to negotiating with other countries about the duties. “Trump said he would […]

The real reason for the Trump Tariffs

For Trump, the suffering is a feature, not a bug. Here’s Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) to explain: “Those trying to understand the tariffs as economic policy are dangerously naive. No, the tariffs are a tool to collapse our democracy. A means to compel loyalty from every business that will need to petition Trump for relief. […]

Unintended consequences

I get that Trump is too stupid to understand that his tariffs (a) will be paid by American consumers, (b) will drive inflation and (c) will prevent future Fed rate cuts. But there are other negative consequences: “While Wall Street frets about potential volatility from President Trump’s April 2 “Liberation Day” plans, another part of […]

Tariff is a beautiful word

Trump says “tariff” is a beautiful word. Maybe for him, but not for American companies and consumers. “Walmart thought it could use its immense power as America’s biggest retailer to make Chinese suppliers eat the cost of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But Walmart got a response it’s not accustomed to hearing: No. “Trump has slapped […]

Trump tariffs: shrinking our way to irrelevance?

In addition to driving down the stock market and driving up inflation, Trump tariffs will drive historical trading partners to shop with China and others outside the US. “While ASEAN and the GCC are unlikely to embrace Beijing to the extent that the Chinese government would like, they will be more receptive to Chinese overtures […]

The Trump tariffs won’t actually happen

Mexico buys about $300 billion worth of goods from us every year, mostly machinery, oil, autos, food and office equipment. If Trump imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, you can be sure that Mexico will retaliate, at the expense of American jobs. Meanwhile, Mexico will certainly be looking to source these goods from China […]