Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Polling, aggregators, and transparency

by Robert Waldmann    What has Nate Silver done for us lately ? This isn’t really about Nate Silver. It is about poll aggregators in general and just as much about the Huffington Post pollster, Real Clear Politics and Talking points Memo as about Silver, Wang Linzer and others who try to estimate outcome probabilities […]

Polling Obsession

The 2012 Presidential is so close just so close that not only do different polls show different results but different averages of polls do. OK it is clear that extremely fancy models such as the fivethirtyeight model which attempt to assign undecideds and use state data to estimate the national vote and vice versa are […]

Mitt did it?

Public Policy Polling has a robo based poll making the rounds yesterday with this question (15) and responses: Q15 Who do you think deserves more credit for the killing of Osama bin Laden: Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Barack Obama……..63% Mitt Romney……… 6% Not sure ………. 31% The breakdown looks like this: Choosing Mitt is […]